The Coming Influenza Pandemic?

July 30 Flu Update

Boston Market Corp. is developing and testing alternative menu items at its Golden headquarters.

Officials at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. are prepared to substitute pictures of burgers for those of chicken sandwiches on the company's menus and signs.

Executives at Red Bird Farms Co. in Englewood have drafted a nine-point plan for communicating the safety of their product.

"I don't even know what I don't know," said Pepe, borough manager for Zelienople, Butler County. "I don't know what resources I need."

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July 29th Flu Update

The ministry said 75 suspected patients were in Phichit, 14 in Sukhothai, five in Kanchanaburi, three in Nakhon Sawan, three in Suphan Buri, two each in Bangkok, Phitsanulok, and Phetchabun and one each in Kamphaeng Phet, Nakhon Nayok, Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi, Maha Sarakham, Uthai Thani and Uttaradit.

Experts say that without thorough genetic sequencing of bird viruses from the area it is difficult to tell whether the virus is mutating, or how the human cases correspond to birds in the area. There have been some human viruses found in Java that so far have no obvious avian counterparts: perhaps simply because matching strains in birds have not been sequenced, or perhaps not.

(from original article): The Jakarta teams alone have discovered an average of 24 previously unknown infected locations a week between January and May. "The community surveillance system is starting to work," says Roeder.

(Revere) You read that right. Not 24 new infected locations in all. 24 infected locations a week over five months! The place is a f***ing (edit mine) bird flu fermentation vat and they are withholding sequences and isolates?

As bird flu continues to spread across the Eastern Hemisphere, international health experts warn that illegal trade in poultry, poultry products and other birds is often the primary cause.

The experiment could shed light on aspects of the infection mechanism of the viral strain that remain a mystery, and pave the way for a human vaccine, the researchers said.

"The highly virulent H5N1 strain virus could kill mice and chickens when they were infected with it but it remains unknown what exactly would happen for monkeys," Kazumasa Ogasawara, a Shiga professor, said.

"Monkeys have immune system cells akin to those of humans, so the research should also be useful in devising measures against infection in humans," he said.

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July 28 Flu Update

11 more suspected bird flu cases were reported in Thailand's lower northern province of Phichit on Thu 27 Jul 2006. Dr. Prajak Wattanakul, head of the Phichit Provincial Public Health Office, said that the 11 patients, mostly children aged between 4-14, are suspected of being infected with avian influenza virus and were admitted to 5 different hospitals in the province on Thu 27 Jul 2006. Some of them had contact with dead poultry and others live in areas where a large number of fowl died of unknown causes.

The 44 suspect cases described above in Thailand is alarming, especially in view of past surveillance. H5N1 has now also been acknowledged in neighboring Laos. In February, H5N1 was detected in both Laos and Malaysia, but neither country, nor neighboring countries file mandatory OIE reports.

Questions of surveillance have been raised for over two years, and the failure to monitor and report may now be manifesting itself in significant human infections and spread.

In just six months, teams of veterinarians marching along dusty, twisting paths in the remote villages of this sprawling country have uncovered more flu outbreaks among birds than experts had even imagined.

"It's still just the tip of the iceberg," said Jeff Mariner, an animal health expert from Tufts University who has been working with the effort since it began in January.

"This is presently the best option because it can detect that our reporting is very weak," said Elly Sudiana, who oversees the program for the Ministry of Agriculture. "So, through this ... early detection can be improved and response can be improved."

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July 27 Flu Update

"While this is encouraging and promising, these results were obtained with a proprietary adjuvant, so access for other companies to use it will most likely be limited," says Dr. Klaus Stohr, the World Health Organization's special adviser on influenza pandemic vaccines.

From a public health perspective, Stohr says an effective vaccine developed with an adjuvant easily available to other pharmaceutical companies would be preferable, as it would expand global vaccine production capacity. More than 20 clinical trials involving potential H5N1 vaccines are being underaken by some 13 companies.

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July 26 Flu Update

In a release, the company said it was able to achieve the level of protection demanded by regulators using two separate doses of 3.8 micrograms each of the antigen, and an ingredient called an "adjuvant" that allows the company to use less antigen.

Asked by BBC Radio if the vaccine could handle a possible mutation in H5N1 that increases its likelihood of spreading between people, JP Garnier, the company's chief executive officer, replied: "If you had a mutation that is closely connected to the H5N1 virus, the answer is probably yes."

These reports identify an 8th suspected human case of H5N1 avian influenza in Thailand. However, 5 other suspected cases previously reported have now been diagnosed as cases of seasonal influenza virus infection.

Three children suffering from what doctors suspected was the bird flu were transferred to Van University Hospital from Hakkari Hospital, where their health condition had initially worsened.

When the parents of the children refused to transfer them to Van, police intervened and forcibly transferred them to Van University Hospital.

Employee illness and absenteeism will easily rise to 35 per cent or higher, supply chains will be disrupted, and customers will also be ill.

"For most of us, that's a huge impact," she said of the high levels of absenteeism.

Nolan added at the same time more employees and customers are ill, increased demand for their service will be added.

"Let's ask ourselves these tough questions now," she said. "It's the responsible thing to do."

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July 25 Flu Update

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July 24 Flu Update

The central government gave up almost all power to local fiefdoms and is rampant with corruption, so these pronouncements have no moral or substantive authority. This is what passes for Indonesian bird flu policy.

posted by Orange @ 9:14 PM 3 comments

July 23 Flu Update

"From my experience, when they say 'no, nothing' it means 'yes, it is' [bird flu]," he told The Nation in a telephone interview after returning from a trip to Phitsanulok, one of the provinces where mass deaths of poultry have been reported recently.

"I will give it 8 out of 10 that what has caused such an abnormal pattern of poultry deaths was it [the bird-flu virus]."

This APEC initiative aims at establishing an information and liaison network across the region which helps create effective and transparent supervision and closer co-ordination and co-operation among member economies.

While KeyBank and other companies say that, internally, they're in control, it's the external factors that have them worried. Will the power continue to flow? Will deliveries be made? Will the water be safe to drink? Will the Internet service providers continue to function?

posted by Orange @ 4:16 AM 1 comments

July 22 Flu Update

A 67-year-old man and his 35-year-old son-in-law were recently admitted to Uttaradit Provincial Hospital. They had developed symptoms similar to those caused by the bird-flu virus after eating spotted doves, said Dr Boonrieng Chuchaisaengrat, head of the provincial health office.

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July 17 Flu Update

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July 16 Flu Update

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July 15 Flu Update

Although a vaccine against the H5N1 virus is under development in several countries, none is ready for commercial production and no vaccines are expected to be widely available until several months after the start of a pandemic, the WHO said.

``Effectiveness of pandemic vaccines will not be known before the pandemic and possibly only after it is over,'' the report in the Weekly Epidemiological Record said. ``In addition, unexpected adverse events, whether coincidental or vaccine- related, will occur that may lead to anxiety and may affect vaccine uptake.''

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July 14 Bastille Day Flu Update

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July 13 Flu Update

"The only effective treatment right now is Tamiflu, but it has to be given within 48 hours after the symptoms appear, after that the effectiveness is going down," Soeroso told Reuters on the sidelines of a symposium on bird flu.

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July 12 Flu Update

The magazine says that 21 mutations were identified in a virus from the father of the 10-year-old boy, involving seven of the virus's eight genes, suggesting that the virus was evolving rapidly as it spread. In addition, from one to four mutations were found in viruses collected from five other patients.

The story says one of the mutations confers resistance to the antiviral drug amantadine, a finding not reported by the WHO.

However, the virus did not spread beyond the extended family, as the article notes. "Many of the genetic changes did not result in the use of different amino acids by the virus," the story says. "And there were no amino-acid changes in key receptor binding sites known to affect pathogenicity and transmissibility."

All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness. Although human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the search for a possible alternative source of exposure is continuing.

The Indonesian Veterinarians Association (PDHI) said the government erred by allowing regional administrations and their officials to take different approaches to dealing with infected fowl.

"Such a variety of approaches has proven to be ineffective because it allowed the virus to reemerge in regions that already culled their sick chickens," PDHI chairman Budi Tri Akoso told reporters ahead of the 15th national congress of veterinarians, held from Tuesday to Thursday in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta

While the chance of a serious pandemic is not high, less than one in three and perhaps much less than that, the consequences of a pandemic for which we are unprepared would be catastrophic. I consider preparing for a possible pandemic to be like buying car insurance, something I hope I will never need but, nevertheless, would be foolish to not have. We may have only a few weeks notice of a pandemic and preparation is best done now. Hoarding and shortages will undoubtedly occur at the first announcement, making needed supplies impossible to get.

posted by Orange @ 9:39 AM 0 comments

July 11 Flu Update

Billings is so passionate about preparing for a bird flu pandemic that he has given up nights, weekends and holidays with his family and is going door to door in his neighborhood. At each house he hands out information in hopes of teaching people what they can do if a pandemic strikes.

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July 10th Flu Update

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July 9th Flu Update

Surreal scenarios have already emerged: Instantly quarantined students. Schools closed and students getting home lessons by Internet for up to two months. Grief counseling.

Researchers say Nigeria may have been hit by different strains of bird flu, raising the risk of human contagion. Experts warn that, unless the Nigerian outbreak is effectively dealt with immediately, there is now a real chance that the virus could become transmissible among humans, leading to the possibility of a pandemic.

From Bryan and College Station, TX, reminders that early warnings are important to save your commercial flocks.

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July 8 Flu Update

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July 7 Flu Update

H5N1 was found on November 9 last year. There had been no reports of the virus in poultry since.

"This is because of our intense surveillance," he claimed.

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July 6 Flu Update

The amino acid sequence at the cleavage site of the hemagglutinin protein of the two Lagos H5N1 strains matched that of strains found in Europe, Russia, and central Asia, the reports says.

Further, analysis of the complete hemagglutinin gene of the two Lagos strains showed they most closely resembled strains from Astrakhan in Russia and from Egypt. The sample from northern Nigeria most closely matched a strain from Kurgan in Russia.

Also, the virus from one of the Lagos area farms was more closely related to the northern Nigeria sample than to the virus from the other Lagos area farm, less than 50 kilometers away, the scientists report. The data ruled out a Southeast Asian origin for any of the viruses.

posted by Orange @ 3:17 PM 1 comments

July 5 Flu Update

Some critics do not believe that governments are doing enough and maintain that in the event of a human influenza pandemic, people should not count on much help beyond what they provide for themselves. What would that entail? A 30-day supply of essential goods? A 60-day supply? A 90-day supply? And, if so, how can those of limited financial means hope to take care of themselves?

Still other critics tend to dismiss the idea of a human influenza pandemic as improbable, suggesting that governments have simply come up with another gimmick to distract people from "real" issues.

I am interested in what readers have to say about the avian influenza issue and the threat of a human influenza pandemic. Is it real? Is it hype? Do you care? Are you prepared? If so, how have you prepared? Do you have faith in what the U.S. government and others are doing to monitor the problem?

Kindly direct your thoughts, observations and strategies to me at jbersia@orlandosentinel.com, and I will summarize the responses in a future column on avian influenza.

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July 4th Flu Update

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July 3 Flu Update

What remains to be done is to develop a contingency plan for use in the event a sudden pandemic threatens to paralyse the country's economic activity, exhaust public-health resources and disrupt key public services like transport systems. Not to mention residual effects like a global economic slowdown. All of this the government and private sector must discuss, in order to ensure effective crisis management if and when worse comes to worst.

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July 1 Flu Update

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June 30th Bird Flu Update

He [Dr. Fedson] told BBC News: "Right now, worldwide, we can produce 300 million doses of seasonal flu vaccine, but it turns out that the H5N1 vaccine is so poorly immunogenic and replicates so poorly that... we could immunise globally, with six months of production, about 100 million people.

"From a public health point of view this is catastrophic," the former professor of medicine at the University of Virginia School of Medicine, US, said.

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