Saturday, May 12, 2007

May 12 Flu Update

The battle with bird continues to go poorly in Bangladesh.

There's a second outbreak in Central Vietnam, where an outbreak was reported last week.

Hungary has now conceded that it might have been the source of the sick turkey that showed up in Britain.

A lab reports that the 2,500 dead poultry in India were New Castle disease, the panic is still having its effect.


At 11:49 AM, Blogger Wulfgang said...


Two quick comments today on Bangladesh and Vietnam. Okay, and China too - I can hardly neglect those little devious communist rascals.

First, one of the things we’ve begun to notice in these poverty ridden countries, like Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Egypt – is, once the H5 virus becomes firmly entrenched, it becomes nearly impossible to control. Noticeable cultural and social factors play right into the hands of the contagion, to propagate it further: lack of education, ignorance, proximity to the poultry (the citizens start hiding the chickens into their houses, which exacerbates the situation), poverty, and complete dependence on poultry as a primary source of protein. Further, weak or non existent veterinary services and government control, give the situation a wide open playing field.

I have no doubt the situation in Bangladesh is significantly worse than the government is admitting. The UN FAO recently sent in a special assessment team, about two weeks ago, and as usual, nothing is reported.

Vietnam is almost an identical situation. Ducks have been scientifically proven to be asymptomatic, even after having been vaccinated, and are notorious for shedding the H5 virus into its surroundings. As long as itinerant farmers continue to raise ducks in that region, the virus will have ample opportunity to mutate and spread throughout the regions in waves.

China is a similar situation also, but with both swine and poultry (a true double whammy going on). China is the largest grower of swine in the world, and coupled with back yard poultry, and their proximity to people – it is a literal ticking time bomb waiting to explode. Their flimsy and nonsensical explanations over the last 36 months of, “bacterial infections”, “pig high fever disease”, “highly pathogenic PRRS”, are becoming ludicrous. The entire country populated with one billion strong, has become one huge viral pandemic of any number of unknown mutated viruses or another, in the making. I predict eventually, the situation in China will be the downfall of Margaret Chan. She fiddled while Rome burned.

The only thing that has puzzles me is India and the Bengal region – why hasn’t the H5 virus spread to major farms in that those regions.? Recent reports of dying poultry there have been attributed to “New Castle” disease.

Sounds a little fishy, but I’ll buy it for now.



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