The Coming Influenza Pandemic?

May 17 Flu Update

In a day of fast-moving events, the WHO also said a caterer from Surabaya city in East Java had died of bird flu, while Indonesia's health ministry said local tests had confirmed a 12-year-old boy from Jakarta who died four days ago was infected with H5N1. Both cases are separate from the Sumatra case.

However, Hong Kong virologist Guan Yi told Reuters that the lag reported between symptom onset in the first victim and in the second wave of victims in the extended family was unusual.

"If they were all infected by the same source," Guan said, "their onset time [of illness] would have been closer. . . . They may have infected one another . . . but we have no evidence."

"Any of us who have any experience with young children know they are very efficient and effective transmitters of germs."

--clip--

In the event of an outbreak, Love said, public health officials would have the authority to close schools, though such a decision would not be made lightly or in a vacuum.

Some studies have shown that even though closing schools can be disruptive, doing so at the outset of a pandemic could decrease the attack rate in the community by up to 33 percent.

Providing tools, guidance

"That's very significant," said Love. "Therefore, we ... are encouraging our schools and providing them with the tools and guidance they need to develop their plans to respond in a pandemic influenza."

Even though no bird with the deadly A(H5N1) strain has yet been detected in North or South America, Cornell ornithologists have already pointed out that bird migration routes are "leaky" - they are broad pathways rather than narrow corridors, and birds are known to get lost frequently. Birds from Asia that breed in Alaska could be found elsewhere, such as along the U.S. Pacific coast.
But even if an infected bird landed in the lower 48 states, the poultry industry is probably safe.
"It's a whole lot easier to see someone smuggling an infected gamecock or parrot into the U.S. through Mexico or Canada," Kevin McGowan said, a research associate at the lab.

Viruses are masters of interspecies navigation. Mutating rapidly and often grabbing the genetic material of other viruses, they can jump from animals to humans with a quick flick of their DNA. Sometimes, as in West Nile fever, the transfer occurs through an intermediate host such as a mosquito. But viruses can also make the leap directly.

In this update:
[1] Europe, surveillance results, wild birds
[2] Romania (Brasov), commercial poultry farms
[3] Egypt
[4] Indonesia (Papua)

posted by Orange @ 6:32 AM