October 4 Flu Update
Here's a bombshell from the President. If the Bird Flu broke out, he thinks we should quarantine regions of the country...and enforce quarantines with the military, if necessary.Effect Measure has an analysis of this idea.
Outside of the fact this kind of thinking is pretty scary stuff, most public health experts know it won't work. Movement is too free and easily accomplished and the American people cannot be forced to do something they think will hurt them or their families. They'll find a way around it with ease. Remember that a quarantine would have to be essentially complete and airtight, because this is a self-reproducing organism. Only one or a few people getting through or for that matter entering the US from elsewhere where the disease is active would negate such a Draconian measure. Bush's public health experts certainly have told him this, so one can assume its object is not to stop disease spread but to control the population.I'm not sure we can assume that last part. Its possible no one wants to tell him that he's wrong, or that they've told him and he won't listen.
CIDRAP on the Bush plan.
The Australians have sent a team of experts to Indonesia.
In Australia, they are preparing trials on a human vaccine, with the hope it can be employed in the middle of next year.
King County (Seattle) Executive Ron Sims held a Business Forum on Pandemic Flu. Very interesting. Says it keeps him up nights. I am not sure if he knew he had scheduled it during Pandemic Flu Awareness Week, but its quite a coincidence if he did.
Here are some things the panel said businesses should think about:
Questions that company executives might ask, they said, include:
A provincial government in the Philippines with a track record of migratory bird activity has formed a bird flu task force.• How will supervisors deal with employees who begin to develop symptoms?
• How will they deal with layoffs if customers or materials become temporarily scarce?
• Will flex-scheduling or telecommuting work for a business if workers find it difficult to meet their typical schedules?
Along with questions, panelists offered these suggestions:
• Tell employees that if they’re sick, they should be at home. Period.
• Make hand sanitizer easily available. Make hand-washing a priority.
• Set up an “I’m OK line,” where employees can leave messages, and a number employees can call to hear recorded news from the business.
• Train emergency management teams, and develop an infectious disease plan now.
EU is holding a bird flu summit. In this case, the purpose is what do they need in Asia, and then a donor's conference could be held in November.
The Jakarta Post says that the health officials there have linked all fatal cases of bird flu to birds near people's homes.
As Effect Measure says, "Maybe."
In Port Elgin, Ontario, officials are planning for the bird flu.
The OIE says its going to Russia to study the wildlife.
The Arizona Republic says we aren't ready, pokes holes in the vaccine theory. This is actually a pretty good summary.
Colorado is planning for a worse-case scenario,...
Colorado’s plan to respond to an influenza pandemic gives the governor the power to quarantine communities, allows for quick burial of victims and authorizes state health officials to seize medications from doctors and pharmacies to fight an outbreak.
The Charlotte Observer says Tamiflu "appears" effective against bird flu.
The Mystery Illness in Toronto has killed four more people. (Recombinomics)
Recombinomics continues to state that testing procedures in Indonesia will miss mild cases.
ProMed with an informative piece on a new case in Indonesia, but its really about what we don't know. In fact, the article talks extensively about the confounding nature of flu surveillance. (Where was that during the containment flu model exercise?)
posted by Orange @ 10:36 PM
3 Comments:
President Bush knows that a military quarantine will not stop the spread of H5N1 and that a Kevlar bulletproff vest will not stop germs. However, a military quarantine WILL achieve the following goals:
1. A quarantine will limit media access to the disaster.The reporters will be reduced to standing in front of the barbed wire barriers.
2.President Bush will have a blank check from Congress- what is money if we are talking military quarantine?
3.Just the THREAT of a military quarantine will scare criminals and preserve some semblance of social order
4.A quarantine will not hurt and may buy time until vaccine can be produced
5. Ironically, a quarantine could actually protect our military by isolation from the civilians.This is important from a government continuity perspective.
6.A quarantine would be dramatic evidence that the government is doing SOMETHING. Remember President Roosevelt's order during the Depression- do something, if it doesn't work we will try something else.
7.Finally, and most ominously, the government suspects that when people see their children dying, any rumor of someone having Tamiflu will lead to violent riots.
Please see "Mystery Illness Toronto 3" at,
http://energeticneurons.bloghorn.com/558
The golf course birds succumbed to poison.
A comment about military quarantines--under martial law I'd think that home invasions and thefts from people sick or dying at home could be kept to a minimum. . . thus also preventing spread of infection.
Interesting comments. Thanks to both of you. One thing is evident in both your comments...the breakdown of social order in New Orleans has had a significant and striking effect on people. I don't think we would have heard comments like this before Katrina, but witnessing that kind of behavior in a social breakdown situation has clearly changed the landscape.
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