Saturday, March 11, 2006

March 11 Flu Update

Excellent NY Times article on one of the many questions a pandemic would present to the health system. As others have mentioned, ventilators could be in short supply. Typically, during flu season, 100,000 of the nation's 105,000 ventilators are in use...and the Bush projections says needs could exceed 700,000. That's an $18B bill--not doable. How do decide who gets one and who doesn't. Read on.

"Families are going to be told, 'We have to take your loved one off the ventilator even though, if we could keep him on it for a week, he might be fine,' " he went on. "How do you think that's going to go over? It's going to be a nightmare."


Excellent article on Canadians living abroad, and how bird flu is effecting their quality of life.

Seven-year-old Taia reacts with horror when she sees chicken or eggs on the table, crying out "bird flu" and refusing to eat them, says her father James Steward, a Vienna-based teacher from North Bay, Ont. There is no evidence suggesting the virus can survive thorough cooking.

Five-year-old Hannah Baumann doesn't get to spend her snack time outdoors in the pre-spring sunshine any more, not since two swans were found dead from bird flu in Austria last month.


Bird flu has continued to spread in Nigeria and Poland.

More on Poland from Reuters.

There are 4 new bird cases in Greece.

ProMed on outbreaks from across the globe.

The Asian Development Bank has given $50,000 worth of equipment to Azerbaijan.

Even the Brazilian poultry industry is seeing layoffs and reduced production, and there's no flu there.

In Alaska, rural villagers are helping with the surveillance effort.

Long Island is concerned for itself--and the whole country--where bird flu is concerned.

Dr. Gleeson has his own acturial estimates of the flu's impact in a town of 1,000,000 people. Chilling indeed.

Using these estimates: In month one and month three, 40,000 people in our fictitious town of 1,000,000 become ill, 13,000 (433 per day) seek medical care, of whom 1,300 (43 per day) are hospitalized for an average of 7 days and 650 (21 per day) die. In the middle peak month, 160,000 are infected, 48,000 (1,600 per day) seek medical care, of whom 4,800 (160 per day) are hospitalized for an average of 7 days and 2,400 (80 per day) die.



1 Comments:

At 3:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Something to Think about!
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given to them over the FORTH part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and WITH THE BEASTS OF THE EARTH.
Revelation 6:8

 

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