October 6 Flu Update
At today's meeting in Washington, health officials from around the world discussed coordinated responsed, notably sharing info and resources. It coincided with Democratic criticism of the Bush administration's response to bird flu. IHT reports.Reuters says the US sent mixed messages today, as the President called for more vaccine, and Secretary Leavitt downplayed the risks.
Here's an interesting one. Based on WHO testing standards, Indonesia is lowering its flu death count from seven to three. Its unclear to me if the four cases were moved to "not flu" or just to "undecided."
In Newsweek, Secretary Leavitt says "no one in the world" is ready for bird flu. (But some are more ready than others--ed). He also makes statements on the vaccine which might be labelled wishful thinking.
Helen Branswell breaks flu news again. She writes that a misunderstanding is behind reports of tamiflu resistance.
It appears a misunderstanding, not a mutation, is behind recent reports suggesting the H5N1 avian flu strain is developing resistance to the drug Tamiflu.Effect Measure has its take on this report.The professor of pharmacology from Hong Kong University quoted as warning of an emerging resistant strain of the virus says he was citing old data, not new evidence, when he gave an interview last week.
Kofi Annan urges world leaders to pool, rather than hoard, flu drugs.
The StarTrib says that bird flu could kill 20,000 Minnesotans in weeks.
CNN says US will make Roche and Sanofi the winners in the bird flu sweepstakes.
Yesterday's blockbuster news was the similarity between the 1918 virus and the H5N1 virus. Suffice it to say, it was all over the news today. We'll only repeat the Economist story, which says:
Effect Measure has an equally interesting take on the news from yesterday on 1918/H5N1.Another intriguing possibility raised by Dr Taubenberger's team is that avian viruses may adapt to humans in a predictable sequence. It seems likely that only a small number of genetic changes were required to turn bird flu into the 1918 pandemic. And it turns out that such genetic changes are also found in other human-pathogenic strains of avian viruses, such as H7N7 and H5N1.
If these mutations are what allow the avian virus to replicate more easily in human cells, then it might be possible to generate a genetic “check list” of dangerous-looking mutations that would allow virus surveillance to be far better focused than it is today. Indeed, H5N1 is already picking up the kinds of mutations that made the 1918 virus dangerous. The researchers think it possible that forces similar to those at work in 1918 are driving H5N1 down a similar evolutionary path. Every time the virus infects a human, or even another mammal such as a pig or a dog, viral replication will generate further genetic changes and some of these will make the virus better at breeding in people. The one bit of good news is that it does not appear that H5N1 is very far along this path yet. The relevant mutations are still scattered among different strains. Some comfort then, but not much.
ProMed has additional text from the 1918/HN1 report.
Nobody--not even WHO--is ready to downplay the risk of bird flu like a bird farmer.
A Dallas Morning News columnist details experts saying US is woefully underprepared.
Interesting Globe and Mail article chasting President Bush for focusing on reaction, not prevention. Many people, however, have written that prevention is essentially impossible, and that we have to focus on reaction---not quarantines and military, but realistic reactions--food, shelter, caring for the sick.
CIDRAP on the mapping of the 209 flu genomes.
Australian says 1 in 10 odds of pandemic.
Effect Measure says bird flu in Indonesia continues to get worse, pick up cases.
Indeed, Recombinomics cites reports that say there are 89 geographically-distributed cases.
ProMed's report from official sources has 86 cases.
Effect Measure writes on reaction to the Bush quarantine plan, including from the right wing Cato Institute.
Recombinomics on the closing of a bird processing plant due to bird flu in Kurgan (Russian Urals).
ProMed with other news on the Kurgan outbreak.
Canada.com says the Toronto deaths are Legionnaires disease, most likely.
H5N1 has a Globe and Mail article where CIDRAP's Osterholm says flu would bring a maximum of 360 million dead. OK, so long as that's the maximum. (note: end of article puts his lower range at 180 million dead.)
Silviu found this CafePress site with bird flu wearables. Chic.
posted by Orange @ 10:20 PM
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