The Coming Influenza Pandemic?

Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Cases of avian influenza may occur year round, but there is a
seasonal pattern, since the survival and the viability of influenza A
virus are known to increase at lower environmental temperatures. Such
an upsurge is expected towards summer's end. For instance, since
2001, H5N1 viruses have continued to circulate in mainland China with
a seasonal pattern, peaking from October to March, when the mean
temperature is below 20 C. See Li, Guan et al, 2004: "Genesis of a
highly pathogenic and potentially pandemic H5N1 influenza virus in
eastern Asia," Nature 430, 209-213.

The Coming Influenza Pandemic?

Is a global influenza pandemic on the way that could kill millions of people? Are we going to relive the horror of 1918? If it happens, are we even remotely prepared to save ourselves? Scientists from around the world are concerned about bird flu...since 2004 our site has tracked news of H5N1 influenza from around the world.

Read the Most Influential Pandemic Book Ever Written

Bird Flu Death Toll

243

Previous Posts

• July 11th Flu Update
• July 10 Flu Update
• July 9 Flu Update
• July 8 Flu Update
• July 7 Flu Update
• July 6 Flu Update--A Plan
• July 5 Flu Update
• July 4th Flu Update
• July 3 Flu Update
• July 2 Flu Update

Links

• FluWiki online.
• Wikipedia on Influenza
• CDC Flu Page
• WHO Flu Page
• CDC Avian Influenza
• New Yorker's Malcolm Gladwell on the search for the flu in permafrost
• New Yorker's Malcolm Gladwell on Flu as our most deadly contagion
• The Planning and Politics behind the flu from Greenhammer
• Preparing for the Next Pandemic
• Michael T. Osterholm, Ph.D., M.P.H.
• New England Journal of Medicine, May 5, 2005
  
  
• Is there anything we can do to avoid this course? The answer is a qualified yes that depends on how everyone, from world leaders to local elected officials, decides to respond. We need bold and timely leadership at the highest levels of the governments in the developed world; these governments must recognize the economic, security, and health threats posed by the next influenza pandemic and invest accordingly. The resources needed must be considered in the light of the eventual costs of failing to invest in such an effort. The loss of human life even in a mild pandemic will be devastating, and the cost of a world economy in shambles for several years can only be imagined.
  
  
• ABC Primetime, September 2005
• "Right now in human beings, it kills 55 percent of the people it infects," says Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow on global health policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. "That makes it the most lethal flu we know of that has ever been on planet Earth affecting human beings."
  
  
• Dr. Robert Webster
• Society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility," Webster said. "I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role.
  
  
• Dr. Robert Fedson
• "There is nothing in Darwinian evolution that says that our DNA has to survive compared to say the DNA of an earthworm. I mean Darwinian evolution is completely indifferent to which DNA happens to persist. We are not necessarily unique as a species as far as evolution is concerned and we can disappear like other species have already disappeared."