Monday, June 27, 2005

June 27 Supplement

Recombinomics on the silent spread of flu in North Vietnam, and looking ahead....

Note this...

This H5N1 is silently spreading mild disease in human and asymptomatic infections in poultry, which would more the pandemic to phase 6. The seeding of the human population with H5N1 sets the stage for further recombination in the fall when migratory birds bring in new sequences, which will cause new problems.

(There is a consistent trend in people's writing that the thrust of the pandemic may still be three months or more away.)


At 11:49 AM, Anonymous SilverLining said...

About the "consistent trend" being three months-- Is this supposed to be a "wisdom of crowds" estimate where people that all have bits and pieces of the puzzle exhibit a wisdom greater than the individual? Or is this the "close but not so close as to panic today" estimate? What's the chances of Viet Nam or China or Kazakstan being crippled by epidemic in the next week? What are the chances of people traveling by jet plane carrying the virus all over the planet (before anyone knows to close borders) this month? ... Or is the "three months" estimate a semi-reliable projection?
... And how does one "estimate" something of this nature?

At 12:10 PM, Blogger Orange said...

All good questions. I just notice people talking that way more than they have in the past...I doubt think it reaches the point of being a "semi reliable" projection necessarily.

As for how one estimates something of this nature, that's a good question. To me, its the difference between estimating and knowing. It can't be known. But you can make an educated guess based on what is happening know to narrow the range of possibilities down.

At 7:46 PM, Blogger jerseycityjoan said...

Re timing: Dr. Fauci & Co. seem to think it won't be this year, according to his remarks at tbe Foreign Affairs roundtable:

"I think the things that people don't understand, and we were just discussing this outside, we may well--in fact, it is highly likely--that we'll get away this year without there being a pandemic flu."

This puzzled me when I read the transcript -- great news, I thought, but what makes you think so?

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