Wednesday, March 09, 2005

March 9 Flu Update--yesterday's news reverberates

False positives, asymptomatic patients. Is this a slow drift (or shift) toward pandemic.

But we'll start with ProMed, which carries stories on the asymptomatic cases. But the interesting story is the first one, with a WHO official saying the current virus has mutated little since last year, and this year's vaccine recommendation still holds.

CanWest writes on similarities to the 1918 flu.

Norway stockpiling antivirals... This appears to the government's action of (last?) resort.

Hong Kong does the same...

United Nations hurriedly gathering data on yesterday's four cases

Chicago Tribune provides rare US mass media coverage of yesterday's events

From the Nero Bureau--Thailand says that bird flu under control...

...and Vietnam says two more provinces bird flu free

If this is what you're into, a publisher has natural antiviral herbs/vitamins list

Recombinomics on what is obvious now. The bird flu has spread much farther than anyone thought, and is complex and varied in its presentation.

Recombinomics on a new cluster in Vietnam.

Effect Measure with an excellent essay on the wishful thinking and avoidance going on right now. We are not 'connecting the dots'


At 5:41 PM, Blogger GoodDeed said...

Medical Services WILL BE Overwhelmed.

This is a musing over what will be the collapse point at which Vietnam can no longer receive into its hospital system all those who will become ill.

It may be worthwhile to see census numbers of ICU beds available by country and by major city. Because these are hard ceilings for "responsible" care, this should identify policy-alteration decision points for public health officials worldwide.

When societies literally run out of beds, what next? I'm guessing that the current planning answer is "nuthin".

One year ago in Vietnam the infection rate of A-I was 1 per week (approx).

Now, the infection rate of A-I is 1 per day (approx).

Hospital care before death is 10 - 14 days in the Intensive Care Unit, and as a guesstimate, 30 days (1/2 in ICU? The below assumes all in ICU).

The rate of increase, if geometric, and stable, would result in an infection rate of 5 per day.

In 365 days, Vietnam will require a medical infrastructure to warehouse and serve, continuously, 200 people in ICU's.

These numbers are all pre-pandemic numbers. A pandemic number of even 1% of Vietnam's population, with an averaged admission rate calculated by dividing same by 365 days, would be 2000+ new ICU beds per day.

At 5:45 PM, Blogger GoodDeed said...

Point of Clarification:

> Hospital care before death is 10 - 14 days in the Intensive Care Unit, and as a guesstimate, 30 days (1/2 in ICU? The below assumes all in ICU).

The "30 days" hospital stay is a guesstimate for those who are H5N1 infected but who recover.

At 7:40 PM, Blogger Orange said...

There are about 1,000,000 hospital beds in the United States, and some calculations I have seen say that there could be 57-60 sick people for each bed.

This is what fascinates me about the flu--what effect would it have it on the social fabric. Would it be every man for himself? How would people be cared for. It could be absolute chaos.


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