Thursday, February 17, 2005

Feburary 17 Flu Update--Has everything changed?

Today's NE Journal of Medicine says that a boy who died of flu in Vietnam did so from diarrhea, but no respiratory symptoms. The implications of this are staggering, and relate closely to the work of Recombinomics. Essentially, it means flu might be far more widespread in Vietnam than we suspect, setting the clock forward on a potential pandemic. The article also specifies two cases of misdiagnosed encephalitis. Here's the Journal summary of the article.

Right on cue, Recombinomics reminds us that in 1918 many cases were misdiagnosed, and broader screening of suspected cases is vital.


Oxford researchers say flu adapting to mammals

Vietnam continues to report some areas with no outbreaks, others not so lucky

Another country heard from...Recombinomics notes suspicous mass pig deaths in India. The encephalitis thing really opens the issue up.

Recombinomics follows up on meningo in the Phillipines, and notes some clusters worthy of analysis.

Recombinomics on the neutrotopics cases


At 7:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let's all be rational here. VACCINE: There's obviously no vaccine that will appear timely. That's ok. One will appear, but like for AIDS, it's targeting an unstable bulls-eye. TAMIFLU: This is the only easily found and sourced amelioration of Type A flu, and while it's accessible now for the few who seek it, in gross numbers, there's not enough for the world, and neither is there enough for those who want and can afford it at the time it will be sought. In addition, there are clear foreshadows of a very real probability that it too will be used in a way that will lead to the virus mutating in a way that would/will block its effectiveness. PANIC: Without osetamivir, the world is exposed, without any proven protection. For the survivalists, this has to be chocolate to a chocoholic. PREPARATION: Nothing I've read focuses intensely on the myriad of infrastructure steps that would be needed to maintain civilization and social order, this time around. Dept of Homeland Security in the USA is probably doing constructive work in this area, at a slow pace, due to other motivations. The book on 1918 flu, now out, mentions social order breakdowns and the stresses at those times. Somebody, some organization, some team of people must be strategizing on how to keep the lights on and the water running. I've not seen word one on that topic.

Does anyone know where to find the planning outlines for pandemic and the probable impact scenarios?

At 8:18 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, it's pandemic time. At this moment, maybe one million caught the h5n1 in the world. Don't forget we fight a flu against which we don't have any solution. If we realize that this winter there's a lot more death than usual, and we try to count the h5n1 case there would be nothing else than a panic wave and it's no good for the economic target. Try to buy Tamiflu and to get a special ionic mask. There's nothing else to do to fight. This is the end of the world as we know it but don't give up.

At 10:31 AM, Blogger Orange said...

You asked...

Does anyone know where to find the planning outlines for pandemic and the probable impact scenarios?Here's the link to the Federal plans. Includes a section on lessons from swine flu, which is the elephant in the room in this entire debate.

At 1:51 PM, Blogger GoodDeed said...

VACCINE PREPARATION: In the top commment, I referred to lack of vaccine. Pondering this further, I think it's quite simple and possible to immediately start to determine some ranges of viral strains that can then be used in vaccine. My thought and layperson's suggestion is for a high security testing lab to infect swine with common human flu and then subsequently infect them, while ill with influenza, with H5N1 in the various permutations now identified. The goal is to induce the "new" and deadly H5N1 virus that will have recombined or reassorted with the "normal" flu. The range of viruses created can then, in a rapid and normal course, be the basis for vaccine manufacture. But I'm a layperson and only imagine this out of thin air. What seems eminently doable is to "make" the dreaded new and next virus that looms on nature's close horizon, with the goal being earlier vaccine production. Hopefully this has a kernal of value to you who are in positions of influence to effectuate additional action.

At 2:25 PM, Blogger GoodDeed said...

The Fed posting of actions to be taken at time of pandemic is not my focus of interest; the recommendations have been reviewed and I still find them merely surface skimming policies. There are bigger issues. I'm interested in money flows, the broad range of goods and services deliveries, rational posits on options to serve the public's need for diversions, addressing international stores of wealth, etc.
Where are the private sector plans that assume the worst case scenario? Where arethe smart planning options for the many months of "seige" mentality... to feed the public, provide transportation, maintain communications, and plan to address the many who will exploit the situation? As Bob Dylan wrote, "When you got nothing, you got nothing to lose." It's a reality of human behavior. Planning by industry groups would appear to me to be advisable. I've not heard word one on that topic. Funding mass kills of fowl seems like "fun" and "extreme" actions that will divert from the practical reality that the grocery store shelves need to be stocked and the gas stations need petrol, etc. Again, industry planning now can allow more time to reflect on best practices scenarios to execute at the appropriate time.

At 6:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, everything has changed!
what happened to the world's
Read "Odds Against
These Men Dying in 30 Months
14 Billion to ONE. The question
is why are they being killed?

At 7:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Vaccines caused the "spanish" flu do some research!

At 8:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Our immune systems recognizes viruses by their exterior envelope . This envelope , under natural mutations , can take only a certain limited number of forms to enable the virus to exist .
ALL those forms can be created artificially in the lab .
Ask your self why this is not done so a true universal vaccine is created …
Answer : pharmaceutical companies hate the idea to miss on a huge yearly sale . Demand answers …


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