Wednesday, March 16, 2005

March 16 Flu Update

Here at The Coming Influenza Pandemic?, we pride ourselves on equal time. So, Bill has commented with this article that says that the flu is being overblown by health bureaucrats trying to inflate their budgets. Read and decide for yourself...

And, for the record, note the "?" in the title of this blog.

The LA Times on leading health experts who say the flu is badly understated.

This article is about what a nightmare flu would be in N. Korea, echoing thoughts many of us probably had when the news broke. Another example of how the flu virus is as good a sociological marker as we have.

Bird Flu --not culling--kills 25,000 birds in Indonesia.

Recombinomics says the WHO should be warning families about the family clusters being found.

Recombinomics on more false negatives...the more we learn the less we know.

Recombinomics on the sick birds in Indonesia, pointing out that there is also dengue fever there, and flu testing is indeed even with atypical symptoms.

ProMed has the chicken story.

ProMed has Dr. Frankel of the VA in Virginia calling for debate on treating a symptomatic flu patients with an antiviral. Read on...

Effect measure with Part II of a commentary on tamiflu...

And finally, the exciting conclusion from Effect measure, Part III.


At 8:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

N.B. My sending on the piece questioning the probability of a avian flu pandemic should not be construed as demonstrating my own opinion. I'm just trying to read all sides in the discussion.

At this point, it seems to me the word "probable" is still the right word. BTW, I am no scientist. But I am following this very very closely. Your blog is very helpful.


At 11:14 AM, Blogger jerseycityjoan said...

Re: Bill's linked article - Your first item

Like Bill, I am also a layman. Forgive me for wasting your time if I've got things all wrong. I thought the article was a reasonable presentation of doubts and disagreement about H5N1.

But that's only the BIG STORY here, isn't it?

Isn't the HUMUNGOUSLY HUGE and SCARY STORY the possibility that human-to-human transmission of avian flu will occur -- and that human-to-human transmission will occur to a person who was already ill with human flu?

So even if H5N1 "isn't so bad", if human-to-human tranmission occurs, future avian flu or mixed avian/human flu strains could be far worse.

The truth is our worries are far bigger than just H5N1, right?

At 11:17 AM, Blogger Orange said...

Fair enough, Bill. That's what its all about. Provide the information, let people make their own mind up. It was an intersting article.

The swine flu shadow hangs over this entire issue. It is easy to dismiss the potential flu epidemic--and all its remedies--by dragging up the specter of that perceived debacle from nearly 30 years ago.

I have said this before...if we have to implement any public health measures for the flu, the right wing media will drag out swine flu and cause major problems. The flu remains a great sociological marker.

Thanks for reading and commenting.

At 9:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bottomline Observation: All viruses replicate and change.

Bottomline Observation: This H5N1 endemic virus will spread due to human folly (such as asympotomatic fighting cocks shipped hither and thither) or, more pervasively, via natural order and ramdomness. It will infect repeatedly. While apparently stable now, it's gonna
change. Humans are merely additional hosts. We will become infected by this or some later version of this flu.

The Future: Incompetence and then-current ignorance, and inappropriate decision making must be expected. Engagements with foudational societal fabric structure, especially ethics and laws, will become more frequent and more obvious. Legal precedents will be set as fact circumstances become more public.

Finally, as Golden Age Greek philosophers observed, "This too shall pass."


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