Thursday, November 01, 2007

October 31 Flu Update--Spoooooookkkkyyyy

Part 5 of the CIDRAP vaccine series--the value of pre pandemic vaccines.

To achieve prepandemic vaccines, researchers would have to ascertain the right dose and dose interval, determine how long priming lasts, and solve the puzzle of measuring primed immunity. Further, regulatory authorities would have to determine the trial design that could deliver those answers, the public discussion that would be necessary for prepandemic vaccines to be accepted, and the safety data that would need to be gathered once the vaccines went into use (see Bibliography: Goodman 2007).

Funeral directors met in Wheeling, WV to discuss pandemic prep.

ProMed on the recent case in Indonesia.

Pakistan says it doesn't see a threat of bird flu.

Corporations are urged to include legal departments in pandemic planning.

Florida is testing for bird flu in ducks.


At 7:19 PM, Blogger Wulfgang said...


I think its becoming very apparent from your CIDRAP series that the “formidable barriers” being described, can be more aptly summed up at this point and time, as a pandemic vaccine “pipe dream”. People may believe what they want, but I see no way in Hades or hajj, that a prime boost strategy or adjuvanted flu vaccines can be pushed through the HHS, FDA and congressional bureaucracy in time. We are really talking post-pandemic administration of vaccines in humans, when it comes to it. Too late to have any real impact.

As the Corporate Counsel article points out: advances in vaccines and medicines will not prevent a pandemic. The risk of a pandemic flu is a reality.

Here’s my view. Preparation for a pandemic cannot at this time be dependent upon a fictitious vaccine that does not yet exist, and is not likely, until long after the waves are upon us. It will be a game (not literally of course) where only those individuals and governments that have taken the time to thoroughly lay contingency plans in place, will be the winners. Those that fall into the categories of “unplanned, unaware and unknowledgeable”, will be the losers. Many of the losers will be young people, unfortunately.

The fierceness and quickness of the pandemic once it starts will be overwhelming to all unprepared societies and people, and will most likely continue intermittently for many months. There will be little or no time to put plans in place once it commences. It will simply be a terrible episode of reaction: no suitable vaccine will be on the near horizon (contrary to popular belief), and the current Tamiflu strategies being depended upon, most likely will prove to be ineffective, since stocks will be depleted in a matter of a few weeks.

I am so glad you posted the funeral director’s article from Wheeling. Excess bodies piling up is surely a macabre subject that no one wants to discuss, but one which must be planned for. Selected federal installations which will serve as POD’s and giant triage sites, have already begun stockpiling body bags, in conjunction with local health authorities and emergency operations planning. In addition, we have begun to implement “strengthened security plans”, and are purchasing emergency command vehicles – all across the US, like nobody would believe. And it’s all being done under the radar.

In other words, some real preparation is taking place for a real national disaster, like I have never before seen in all my years in government.

It’s one thing to read a series of CIDRAP articles about the vaccine barriers; and about funeral directors refrigerating excess bodies; and about business and corporate responsibilities to their employees and supply chains fracturing.

But it is quite another sobering thing to see the bulk empty body bags stacked by the thousands in warehouse storage.



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