Sunday, October 28, 2007

October 27 Flu Update

More on continuing outbreaks in Vietnam.

ProMed on FAO warnings from Europe, as well as latest from Vietnam.

The UK government says 650,000 will die of bird flu in that country.

Hall County, NE, joins other areas in using the seasonal flu vaccine for a pandemic exercise.

Same thing in Arkansas.

Oshkosh readers are educated on the difference between seasonal flu and a pandemic.


At 10:43 AM, Blogger Wulfgang said...


I missed commenting on your articles yesterday (yes even the Wulfster has pressing demands on occasion), but one in particular is noteworthy in its content and message: the CIDRAP article, Part 2, “Vaccine production capacity falls far short”. I know you have read it carefully, but maybe your readers ought to take another look.

As the article points out quite clearly, even if the vaccine producing plants curtailed production on seasonal trivalent vaccines, and concentrated on a pandemic vaccine, they would still fall way short of the necessary total volume they would need, especially since double-doses are required. As Michael Osterholm points out, “boosting seasonal flu-vaccine demand is not the way to prepare for pandemic flu”. That economic model based on current supply/demand paradigms, will go out the window if a pandemic emerges. All available flu vaccines will remain in the country where they are produced. Have no doubt of this.

What’s more, it is most critically important for all people to understand that the government publicized “4-6 month range to start rolling pandemic vaccines off the production line”… is a pipe dream. The capacity is not there and won’t be, the plants to make the syringes, and all the other required needle and chemical components are not there either. Everyone will be fortunate if a pandemic vaccine is available for at least a year to eighteen months – and the pandemic will have already run its deadly course and inflicted its monumental death toll. That’s reality folks – to think that we are all going to magically be given a non-existent pandemic flu inoculation “just in time”, is a Hollywood film fantasy.

This dire situation points out a couple of things that people need to understand: the US government’s COOP activities are all based upon crisis management - which is mainly supplying limited health care and delivering massive emergency medical supplies - all are emergency response operations similar to predictable natural disasters, and recovery operations, based on experience. That’s it.

Here’s some real controversial food for thought, about who will have the manufacturing capacity to crank out pandemic vaccines on very short notice: China and probably Russia.

The world’s worst kept secret is that China is already the largest EXPORTER of avian influenza poultry and PRRS swine vaccines in the entire world. They already produce hundreds of millions excess vaccines and can produce enough pandemic vaccine in 6-9 months to vaccinate nearly their entire population. And very soon Russia will follow suite. China in partiular, already has the machines, the production plants, chemicals, the glass and even the labels. The impetus for both of them to develop core pandemic vaccine production capability, has been the massive avian virus poultry outbreaks in their countries over the last several years. However, the US, Canada and European nations have virtually done nothing in this regard, because we really haven’t been hit hard by the virus yet. They both have.

What are the implications ?

Western nations are virtually in gridlock, still trying to figure out a vaccine game plan and piddling around with arcane and mostly ineffectual citizen’s awareness and public health care campaigns. No surge capacity, no national pandemic vaccine strategy that’s worth the paper it’s written on, and no real scalability. Little vaccine backbone - we see this situation in the MSM reports every day.

The US is squandering nearly all of its valuable resources on war time manufacturing and production of weapons, terrorism protection, consumer services and entertainment. And the real war involving biology, health care and epidemiology, which is about to begin – we will lose, because we have not developed the medical weapons to defeat it.

CIA, military, HHS, and State Department geniuses please take notice – if most of us can see through this impending national catastrophe, why can’t you ? (Notice I didn’t mention FEMA, because they are too busy arranging bogus news conferences – talk about a useless waste of taxpayer’s money and precious oxygen)



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