Sunday, November 11, 2007

November 10 Flu Update

ProMed on the recent death in Riau.

Profile of University of Texas researcher who is working on a new antiviral.

The UK continues to realize there is not enough Tamiflu.

Louisiana editorial says preparation is key to fighting a pandemic.

Recombinomics is silent on further news from Riau.


At 5:23 PM, Blogger Wulfgang said...


After reading the article about the UT researcher (Robert Krug) and the companion article from the UK, I can see a real crisis in the making, in both countries.

First of all, neither country seems to be factoring in the right dosage of Oseltamivir per person… is it just a single dose, double or triple dosage? If it is only a single dose per individual, then for a measly ten percent stockpile (or less) for the total population in both countries, it is highly doubtful that present stockpiles would effectively limit the number of cases and deaths in either country.

I have said this at least ten times before, so here is number eleventh time: the governments of both countries have no efficient means of delivering the stockpiled antiviral’s to the general population in time to generate any real difference in illness or deaths. As a prophylactic it must be administered within two days of exposure to the pathogen. If not, you are probably hosed. Present plans in both countries are for sick individuals to acquire it by physician’s prescription, as if “business was usual”.

I have news for everybody – business “won’t be usual” during a pandemic. If the governments of the US, Canada and UK can’t deliver the antiviral to the citizens before hand, then all three countries will reap what they sow. The easiest thing would be to simply mail the drugs to home addresses. The dumbest thing in the universe and all know solar systems will be to stockpile the drugs in locations like pharmacies, hospitals and secret warehouse locations, and not dispense them directly to the citizens – this virtually guarantees lawlessness and disorder as people will try to access it at any cost. Even the National Guard wouldn’t stand a chance in those circumstances, as people will absolutely panic.

As to the situation in Riau, Indonesia ? Nothing more is being said, even in the local newspapers there. This cluster situation will magically evaporate, like all others, and all statements recanted or reversed, as Ms Supari clamps down on information being released through the press.

I guess you can’t hide dead bodies, but you sure can debate what the cause of death was.

Eventually, she won’t be able to cover up the body count and she will be forced to authorize a desperate mass pre-pandemic inoculation campaign.

And she’ll blame it all on the West.



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