Wednesday, August 02, 2006

August 2 Flu Update

3 children are suspected of having bird flu in Indonesia (confirming Recombinomics report from yesterday.) This is the province that was home to THE human cluster. These are two siblings and a neighbor, and you have to wonder if we have another cluster.

Recombinomics is reporting now six patients in a cluster pattern.

Recombinomics notes that the Thailand situation is beginning to look like a cluster.

Revere on the situation in Thailand. Widely fluctuating numbers of cases under observation are the order of the day. Hard to draw conclusions right now...

After the first confirmed human case in 9 months last week one might expect the index of suspicion to be ramped up considerably and many cases of pneumonia and respiratory disease with fever are now being placed in the "rule out bird flu" category to make sure, accounting for the sudden appearance of these cases.

Recombinomics is reporting a second confirmed human case in Thailand.

Thailand is increasing surveillance and monitoring. Clearly, the alert level is increasing.

Thailand has focused its attention on the Central Plains.

Based on what's going on in neighboring countries, Vietnam recognizes that there is increasing risk of bird flu there.

We all remember the big news from this week--that scientists had tried to reassort the bird flu virus, and found H2H hard to accomplish. Revere has read the paper, and has this to say:

I have now had a chance to read the PNAS paper by Maines et al. and it is surprising in two respects. The first is it isn't that interesting. The second is related to the first. Why did they bother to hold a press conference about it? Even more, why did the press conference focus on the reassortment question when that didn't establish much. Anyway, that's how I read it.

ProMed on the PNAS paper.

An OIE/FAO group has pledged to immediately publishing its genetic sequences, and says everyone else should do the same.

The Region of Waterloo, ON, is preparing for a pandemic, including with a business continuity guide.

Thailand insists it has ample supplies of Tamiflu.

Apparently, the Feds will pay for states to have Tamiflu for 15% of the population. Wisconsin wants 25% (based on a CDC guideline) and wants the Feds to pay for it.

Alameda County, California, is holding bird flu summits.


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