Sunday, March 09, 2008

March 9 Flu Update

Bird flu is back in West Bengal....

Despite massive culling, bird flu is back in a Bangladesh region.

A farmer in Bangladesh was quarantined, but is said not to have bird flu.


At 6:20 PM, Blogger Wulfgang said...


I still find the news reports of “no human cases of bird flu” coming out of India and Bangladesh, quite incredible. This is even as the H5N1 still continues to rage on through the poultry and cullers are in close contact with the infected birds. Let’s look at the population statistics and see if it makes sense:

Top 15 most populated countries and their percentage of the world’s population:

1. China: 1.32 B, 20 % (both a & b)
2. India: 1.12 B, 17% (a only)
3. United States: 300 M, 4.6% (neither a or b)
4. Indonesia: 225 M, 3.5% (both a & b)
5. Brazil: 186 M, 2.8% (neither a or b)
6. Pakistan: 165 M, 2.5% (both a & b)
7. Bangladesh: 147 M, 2.3% (a only)
8. Russia: 143 M, 2.2% (a only)
9. Nigeria: 135M, 2.1% (both a & b)
10. Japan: 138 M, 2.0% (a only)
11. Mexico: 108 M, 1.7% (neither a or b)
12. Vietnam: 87 M, 1.3% (both a & b)
13. Philippines: 86 M, 1.3% (neither a or b)
14. German: 82 M, 1.3% (a only)
15. Egypt: 75 M, 1.2% (both a & b)

Footnote: (a) has reported bird flu in poultry, (b) has reported human cases of bird flu

This simple summary shows that 4.3 billion people live in these 15 most populated countries, and represent roughly two-thirds of the entire world’s population. Asia accounts for over 60% of the world population with almost 3.8 billion people, and China and India alone comprise 20% and 16% respectively. Bird flu in poultry (infestation) has been reported in eleven of these countries, and human infections have only been reported in six countries. Note that India and Bangladesh have reported and continue to report extensive and repeated poultry outbreaks, massive culling operations, but not one human infection.

I doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice that something is wrong.

Around 27% of the world’s entire population falls in the 15 years-of-age, or younger age group, and nearly all of these young people live in the Asian area, within these top fifteen countries.

In my view, the Asian area is a not only a hot spot for a pandemic, it is ground zero: it has the highest population density, the most reported infected poultry, the largest number of fowl living in close proximity to humans, and the most human illnesses from H5N1 (those that have reported accurately).

And Asia has the largest number of young people, which H5N1 prefers to infect the most.



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