Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Octrober 2 Flu Update

A Swedish researcher warns about the dangers of Tamiflu abuse.

Swedish scientists say that Tamiflu -- the frontline weapon in any bird-flu pandemic -- cannot be broken down by sewage systems and this could help the virus mutate dangerously into a drug-resistant strain.
The US is helping Cambodia fight the bird flu.

CIDRAP on the death in Indonesia from yesterday.

ProMed on yesterday's death.

CIDRAP catches up on the news that H5N1 attacks organs and the placenta.

Reuters gives nice summary of recent bird flu events.

EU critic says EU is not prepared for bird flu.

Progressive blog on the prep work being done on college campuses.


At 5:58 PM, Blogger Wulfgang said...


Well, I see they finally have published a confirmed study that Oseltamivir cannot be broken down by sewage systems, it is released in the waste water when it leaves the plant, ducks then most likely forage in the sewage and ingest the chemicals, resulting in avian viruses that might combine with ordinary flu viruses which can create resistant new novel pandemic stains.

Sounds like we have a complete life cycle being described here. My opinion is that these events are already being repeated over and over, most likely occurring daily in all of the Indo-China countries. Sounds to me like the perfect pandemic storm shaping up, a very distinct possibility just waiting to happen, given enough time.

Did you notice in your CIDRAP article that the “pathology studies” were performed on Chinese cases nearly two years old ? One has to wonder – did the Chinese government wait two years to release the data and samples, or did the actual research take two long years to be published ? Regardless, you have to question China’s “openness policy” that they are continuing to refer to. Well, at least they provided some opportunity to acquire valuable medical data, which is about ten light years more than Indonesia is offering. We get very little from Indonesia these days, except more deaths due to H5N1 infections, and an outstretched hand for more free money. No lives samples of anything, except acrimoniousness.

One gets the distinct impression from your EU article that they are woefully behind North America in their pandemic plans. Sounds to me like they have a 12 inch binder full of paper ideas (an excellent door stop), but no actual inter-operational capability.

Your last article, which was apparently written by a young college student, about college campuses preparing plans for an avian flu pandemic, was actually outstanding (spelling errors not withstanding). The article displayed quite a bit of mature thought, comprehension, and contained some excellent points – for example, we do not have to live in fear everyday, but we need to be aware of the events transpiring around us.

However, as the actual events of 9/11, Katrina and Virginia Tech, illustrate to all of us, terrible unplanned bad things do happen in the course of our lifetimes, and we should all be cognizant, cautious, and be minimally prepared. As the saying goes, “crap happens”.

For example: what if we were all to wake up tomorrow morning and heard the shocking news that the US has bombed the Iranian nuclear facilities into oblivion, or terrorists had secreted a nuclear weapon into the US and obliterated a major city, or perhaps the San Andreas fault-line decided to collapse – would each one of us have the resiliency, mental and physical preparation to react appropriately? These are all gruesome, but very plausible events.

What if a deadly influenza pandemic virus escaped from a bio-level three laboratory and the MSM was reporting thousands of people were suddenly critically ill? Once again, a very plausible event.

Terrible thoughts indeed, but both Murphy’s Law and Unintended Consequences occur more frequently than we realize. Most manmade events are headed off by the authorities so we never hear about them. But we have absolutely no control over natural catastrophes and immerging diseases. It's something to think about everyone.



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