Wednesday, July 04, 2007

July 4 Flu Update--Back again.

Nice trip. Semi-relaxing.

A 3-year old is locally confirmed H5N1 in Indonesia (ProMed).

Germany is reporting bird flu in a wild bird. Also, France is testing some dead birds.

Update: French birds are H5N1.

Promed on France, Germany and Vietnam. Note Vietnam heading to China to buy poultry vaccine.

OIE is helping with a vaccination program in Togo, while poultry vaccination is going slowly in Vietnam due to a shortage of vaccine (ProMed).

More on vets at increased risk.

Barbados is allowing British poultry back into the country.

1 Comments:

At 8:21 PM, Blogger Wulfgang said...

Orange;

Welcome back.

Interestingly, bird flu news appears to be slow, but it really is not. The recent outbreaks in Germany, France, parts of Russia, and Czechoslovakia, is a reflection on their tremendous lack of surveillance on the entire European front.

I find the humongous amounts of poultry vaccines that are being supplied to the various parts of Africa (Togo, Mali, Mauritania, Ghana, Egypt, Senegal), as well as Vietnam and Indonesia, rather startling – it’s now in the many hundreds of millions doses. One has to wonder, how long these countries can keep up this error prone, repetitive, labor intensive and costly process.

However, the big news is going to be coming out of Asia, most probably Indonesia, before year end, and over the next twelve months – my predictions are simple:

1. Supari will be forced to start mass human pre-pandemic H5N1 vaccinations, because of H5N1 mutation, transforming itself into a less deadly but more human transmissible virus.
2. Preliminary instant "success" will be claimed at quashing a pandemic - but it will be short lived.
3. The "unintended consequences" as a result of her actions will be unpredictable and have potentially disastrous consequences. My opinion is that if she starts human mass vaccinations – watch out.

Just my take on things there Orange, based on reading the “tea leaves”.

I will be out of commission until next week – probably return around July 11th.

Wulfgang

 

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