Monday, February 27, 2006

February 27 Flu Update

Having connectivity issues, this is all I could eke out.

WHO says there are now 173 cases, 93 fatal.

China reports two new cases, a 9F and a 26M. They are the 14th cases reported in that country.

CIDRAP follows this story as well, reporting they are in critical condition.

CIDRAP also reports on five new countries with bird flu confirmed or suspected.

One of them is Niger--Recombinomics has more.

The WHO Director-General issued a pretty basic bird flu statement....

The main health risk currently is to people who are in close contact with infected poultry, such as families with backyard flocks and poultry workers in wet markets or live animal markets.

Reuters give a good overview of the current state of play for the virus.

Of course, Effect Measure gives an even better on, with Part II to come.

The 21M in Romania from yesterday is said to be negative. As always, first diagnoses are often suspect.

WHO is praising India for its bird flu response--fast and efficient.

With bird flu in Switzerland, the obligatory "don't panic" responses are coming out.

Nigeria continues to reap the harvest of years of governmental abuse...farmers are too suspicious and are hiding their birds--mean the outbreak there is worse than people know.

More stories on the reeling poultry industry in India.

Odessa, Ukraine, has bird flu in a resort zoo, much like what happened in Jakarta.

Finland is testing 13 dead birds for H5N1.

Pakistan says it has found LPAI there. Again initial negative reports often change...

...as Recombinomics notes.

Alabama has a bird flu strategy published.

Britain updated its contingency plan as well.

Chiron is seeking approval for its bird flu vaccine.

On another front, Novartis And Alnylam are working on RNA interference programs.

APEC says bird flu continues to be a regional priority.

The point is made once again...poor countries need funds to fight the bird flu.

Candidly, I'm not sure how I feel about this, but Dr. Gleeson is inviting readers to predict the scope of the pandemic.

Here are his predictions:

1. I believe that the virus has a 30% chance in each of the next two years to become a global pandemic.

2. I believe that this virus will behave like a immunologically unrecognized influenza virus and infect 30% of the population.

3. I belive that 5% of those who are ill will die. Yes, this is higher than my initial guess a year ago, but this darned virus is not behaving according to the rules. And twice as many will die in developing countries as developed countries.


Busy day at ProMed...WHO updates on China and Indonesia.

The French have filed an OIE report, with birds outbreaks in the Southeastern part of the country.

And the ball goes back over the net, as the migratory bird debates continues, well, unabated.

ProMed reports on five different countries part I...

and Part II.

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