Sunday, February 19, 2006

February 18 Flu Update

Another country heard from...India has the bird flu (Western part of the country). 500,000 bird cull is on the way. They are checking eight people for bird flu, though this is often precautionary.

Recombinomics has this on an unconfirmed, but suspected human death in India (this originally sources to a Reuters report.)

The Indian media is responding. Here is a do and don't. (IE, do eat cooked food, don't touch the droppings).

Local story from Indian media...

The PM is getting involved...local media says the eight are "hospitalized"

Story on their local action plan being activated....

After much hype, its now coming into play---the Indians have use for their generic Tamiflu.

Here a story from India on the deadliness bird flu....

Meanwhile, a 19th death was confirmed in Indonesia, the most flu stricken nation on earth. He died on Feb. 10.

More on yesterday's report of Egypt. The government is culling 10,000 birds, and talking about how large scale poultry farms are safer ways to raise chickens, not on "rooftops." Seven people were tested and reported negative.

In Britain, they ask if bird flu is on the doorstep. Channel 4 reports...

The Turkish Press (of Detroit MI) has a flu timetable.

More on Secretary Leavitt in Nevada for flu summit. This is an interesting story.

What happens when children can't go to school, the faithful can't attend Sunday service and people can't fill their prescriptions?

South African story on the "encouraging" flu vaccine.

The Republic of Indonesia is upping its Tamiflu stocks in the face of rising case counts.

A Philadelphia company says its anti-immune drugs can boost the effectiveness of Tamiflu.

Effect Measure on the "breakthrough du jour." I think his basic message--and one we hear all the time from people who are not in the cheerleading business (Pharma and MSM), is that there are no miracle plays here. Lots of time and work left to do.

Another high quality Effect Measure entry. Everyone wonders about H5N1 hitting the Americas, and notes uncertainty about the relative roles played by migratory birds and poultry trade in spreading the disease. Finally, a note--if human cases emerge in Europe, the theory that you need to have an intimate living relationship with poultry will be discredited.

Revere also comments on the Sandman post from yesterday. Don't be afraid to use fear....

Recombinomics notes H7N7 in Germany, and the ever present chance for Recombinomics.

Promed has the latest missive from BirdLife International attempting to debunk the migratory bird theory--and then a rebuttal which claims the avian welfare activists are using the flu to come after factory farms. Finally, the mod weighs in with an interesting insight.

Given limited facilities and time, he told us that you should ignore the body of an epidemic and investigate the outliers because how these occurred would provide the most insight. Later this was defined by David Roger's 'Two Models' Rule: A mathematical model to describe the core area of an epidemic will need some 20 parameters but for the margin you will only need 3 parameters. This is logical because at the margins the disease is either present or it isn't; in the centre the incidence is going up and down all over the place. This is what we are seeing with H5N1 avian influenza; what is or is not happening in central China may only be confusing the interpretation of long-distance spread.

ProMed on the reported disease in Indonesia, and a man in quarantine in Bulgaria.

ProMed with a worldwide survey.


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