Monday, January 16, 2006

January 16 Flu Update

We're back. Was able to check in on the news a little bit over our vacation. Back to the daily routine!

New deaths are reported in Turkey and Indonesia today. For those family cluster junkies out there, two siblings of the dead child in Indonesia are also ill.

Nothwithstanding this, WHO says the threat of bird flu is diminishing in Turkey..

"We do expect to see some (more) cases because it takes time before the virus in birds has completely disappeared," Dr. Guenael Rodier, who heads the WHO mission to Turkey and is an expert in communicable diseases, told Reuters in an interview.

"We know that the risk remains with close interaction between people and birds but we believe it is going down daily."

Aiding in this, Turkey has culled near one million birds.

WHO update on pandemic situation--dateline Turkey.

Ducks began dying in the family’s household flock on 1 January. On that day, the girl, assisted by her brother, slaughtered a duck for food.

On this same point, Effect Measure writes on the seminal question--is it going H2H yet? Of course, as he notes, its almost inescapable that if it can, it will, so the question is prepare now or later.

ProMed on Turkey. A few interesting points.

  • 16 of 20 cases not serious.
  • Case was originally a false negative.
  • Because isolates are similar to those in China, mod theorizes that its social and environmental causes--and not the virus--that explains the differences in Turkey.
OIE report in Turkey.

WHO's David Nabarro is pushing large nations to put money into flu fight.

Take a deep breath...Jerusalem bird flu fear unfounded. (and say that three times fast).

The EC is pushing for European countries to step up flu flight checks of people and baggage.

"It's very easy to blame bird migration, because then no one's responsible," said Juan Lubroth, a senior United Nations scientist who has spent the last week in Turkey investigating the outbreaks. "Migrating birds may introduce the virus into an area, but it is human activity that spreads it."
Iran is preparing for the bird flu to cross the border from Turkey.

Delegates from France are in Vietnam learning how to fight the bird flu (historic irony warning)

Bulgaria got 500 packs of Tamiflu donated.

The Fort Wayne Journal Gazette notes that the flu pandemic would strain drug supplies--which it would.

The WHO Lab in London is a central point of the flu drama, based on this story.

ProMed on Indonesia, detailing cases and clusters.

Recombinomics notes that (unconfirmed) reports from November showed that 77 cullers had died in China--and then notes additional evidence--that of massive drug shipments to the region. Obviously, any unknown outbreak of this size would be signficant. Oddly, if we knew the virus in Turkey was similar to that in China, and that outbreaks had occurred in both places, then it might actually reduce some worry about the virus getting worse.

Recombinomics notes this indication of cluster to cluster (C2C??) transmission in Turkey.


At 3:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am really getting scared, all I can think is I am going to lose alot of my family and alot of my friends. Am I getting too nervous or should I really be concerned?

At 7:10 PM, Blogger Orange said...

Well, abject fear never solved anything. This could be really serious. Educate and prepare yourself.


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