October 16 Flu Update
Caught up a little on my reading today. If you're new to the bird flu--and my hit data suggests you are--here are two documents which will catch you up in no time...on what's happened, what the options are, and what they should be.The first is Peter Sandman, who is a risk commuicator. This is a tour de force, IMO.
The second is notes taken by an attendee at a Deutsche Bank seminar on bird flu in NY. Also, excellent.
Romania is taking steps against the bird flu--there's a little news on Turkey, too. The virus has popped up in multiple sites in Romania.
Reuters on the culling in Romania.
CNN has reports that the bird flu is contained in Turkey.
Taiwan is conducting a major, multi-department exercise to prepare itself for when the virus comes.
An Australian scientist has an interesting take on the Tamiflu resistant report, saying that the virus that goes H2H is likely to be sensitive to Tamiflu.
He says:
But a bird flu outbreak in Australia would be the result of a new strain able to spread from humans to humans, and such a strain was more likely than not to be sensitive to Tamiflu, he said.
Australian health officials have stockpiled Tamiflu, as well as a similar drug, Relenza.Professor Rawlinson said any strain of flu resistant to Tamiflu was likely to also be resistant to Relenza. "If bird flu comes to Australia, it is possible that resistance will be a problem - but it is unlikely," he said.
Britian's top medical officer says bird flu will inevitably reach Britain.
Forbes says France is prepared to spend 200 Million Euros on bird flu.
Israel purchased 8 million doses of Vaccine for H5 and H7.
Secretary Leavitt is on the first of two days in Jakarta, where the most human cases have been recently.
Here's a story from the Babson Free Press, which is the student newspaper at Babson College, which is in Massachusetts. The author did an internship in Jakarta, and has some personal experiences to relate.
The MetroWest Daily News (Framingham, MA) says 1.6 million people in that state could be sick with bird flu.
"The world is about as well prepared for this as New Orleans was prepared for a category 4 hurricane," said Dr. Michael Lew, chief of infectious disease at Newton-Wellesley Hospital.
A while ago, we ran a story about a simulation from San Diego where a tabletop exercise was done to study quarantines in the event of a novel virus. Its very interesting, and you should read for yourself.
Today, the San Diego paper picks up on it, and its chilling results--notably, the reasons there is special risk in San Diego, and the reasons why it was withheld from the public.
The Rochester Democrat and Chronicle has a nice article on what bird flu would mean to Rochester.
Mike Davis, whose book is sold on the right side of this site, penned this op-ed for the SF Chronicle about the years of neglect of the bird flu issue within the US government.
People in Switzerland are buying Tamiflu online like crazy.
Requests for the drug are also up in Utah.
Interesting article from New Zealand, noting that concern over bird flu is higher in NZ than Australia. A number of reasons are cited, including a much higher death rate in 1918 in NZ, due to a slower reaction and less stringent quarantine regimen.
Newsweek today runs what can be construed as equal time, given the massive amount of MSM coverage of bird flu this week. This story says the chances of a pandemic are fairly low.
Here's a Norman, OK article that talk about bird flu--both the garden variety, and the avian variety.
Recombinomics has comments which suggest bird flu might have been found in Bulgaria.
Recombinomics has a species list from Russia.
ProMed hits a lot of notes from around the world.
Among them:
- China has a low-cost spray vaccine for birds.
- Poland has ordered all birds indoor
Oseltamivir Resistance - Important Clarification
-----------------------------------------------
The case of partial Tamiflu-resistance reported in the Kawaoka report in Nature [see: Influenza viruses, drug resistance (05) 20051015.3014] is the same case as was reported on in the WHO's Manila report in mid-May 2005 [see:Influenza viruses, drug resistance (03) 20051007.2924;Influenza viruses, drug resistance (02): RFI 20051001.2878]. I had been told it was a case that hadn't previously been reported, and I reported it that way. A number of other news reports treated it as brand new evidence as well. But Dr Kawaoka
confirmed for me today that the virus he calls A/VN/30408 is the same as A/VN/HN30408 from the earlier. report
---
Helen Branswell
The 9 people under observation have been released from the hospital.
Crofsblogs has this on British GPs being advised to be ready for large numbers of cases.
posted by Orange @ 4:49 PM
2 Comments:
A little reactionary discussion: who decides and how?
11/6/2005
Let me put on my paranoid reactionary hat. Many of you will have read the following in the New York Times. My comments below...
{QUOTE}
October 8, 2005:
Bush Plan Shows U.S. Is Not Ready for Deadly Flu
By Gardiner Harris
...
A key point of contention if an epidemic strikes is who will get vaccines first. The administration's plan suggests a triage distribution for these essential medicines. Groups like the military, National Guard and other national security groups were left out.
Beyond the military, however, the first in line for essential medicines are workers in plants making the vaccines and drugs as well as medical personnel working directly with those sickened by the disease. Next are the elderly and severely ill. Then come pregnant women, transplant and AIDS patients, and parents of infants. Finally, the police, firefighters and government leaders are next.
The plan also calls for a national stockpile of 133 million courses of antiviral treatment. The administration has bought 4.3 million.
...
"http//www.nytimes.com/2005/10/08/politics/08flu.html?th=&adxnnl=1&emc=th&adx
nnlx=1128783830-vAKSIxwtHX4MX10G9pPYWA&pagewanted=print
{/QUOTE}
This kind of stupid, short-sighted "planning" drives me crazy!! Why can we never find people willing to discuss and actually make the hard decisions we need to have made? "The elderly, the severely ill, and transplant and AIDS patients" should not even be considered in the calculations for treatment in a pandemic.
Yes that means my elderly mother, and some of my friends -- and possibly even my husband -- might die of the pandemic flu, whichever virus it turns out to be. Yes, that's a dreadful and hard thing to consider. But there are two types of triage -- one is standard medical triage (treat first those injured or ill most likely to survive; which applies in a shorter-term, less-than-globally-catastrophic situation). The other triage, and in the case of the pandemic, the one that HAS to over-ride the first, is the long-term continuation of the ... the ... the tribe, the nation, the civilization. We must first protect the personnel necessary for social order and the continuation of the infrastructure, technology, and food production needed to keep the country going. The distribution of vaccines and such ameliorative methodologies as we can come up with needs to be focused on continuation of the SOCIETY, not on the individual members -- especially not the weakest members!
And yes, that means every country for itself. The United States doesn't have the drugs, the money, or the personnel to try to save every little two-bit country across the world. Or even any of the 16-bit ones. Does anyone really believe Switzerland will continue to export Tamiflu after the pandemic begins? (After all, Roche has already stopped exporting to America just to prevent "hoarding"!) Or will they (I'd suggest correctly) use their supplies for their own people? There is nothing rational or normal about letting your own family/people die in order to save someone else's family/people.
Such vaccine as we are able to get or manufacture should be given first to medical personnel; then police, firefighters, and the military (but probably NOT those off fighting a foolish war unrelated to the continuation and health of our country!); and those workers necessary for the continuation of the services required to keep the society running.
That means the folks operating services such as potable water and sewer services and food production/delivery and electricity generation and distribution. Think about what happens if the electricity plant workers in NYC all fall sick; how will NYC manage for a week or more without electricity -- and with no other city able to provide help? Even if, say, Chicago has electrical workers to spare, it wouldn't be able to send them -- quarantine/travel restrictions, Chicago's own need for back-up workers if their workers get sick, and the workers' (rightful) unwillingness to jeopardize their own lives by travel means NYC is on its own! If NYC has
"wasted" their vaccine/treatments on the elderly and transplant patients, and their infrastructure personnel get sick, the elderly and transplant patients will likely die in the riots, and cold or heat and dark that will follow.
Hospitals fail without electricity: Katrina was a trial-run, and we FAILED! You cannot have nurses hand-bagging 100,000 flu victims when the power goes out!. Many elderly and medically compromised people will die -- that's tragic -- but their age and medical status do not and cannot put them at the head of the line for restricted resources. Their contribution to the continuation of the *society* is nowhere NEAR as necessary as those folks who keep the society running.
Sadly, that does mean politicians of some sort will also have to be protected -- but I'd suggest a determination of the necessity of the top levels of (which) certain agencies and not many of the mid- and low-level govt employees. Some employees of the Department of Agriculture are important for managing the production and transport of food supplies -- but the guys assigned to "sell more sugar" should have to wait for medicine/vaccine just like all the other non-essential personnel -- because they are!
The attitude of the New York Times writer is typical of the frustrating blindness of most people -- they refuse to recognize that Nature means some people die. (Well, ALL people die, just some much earlier than others.) Our idiotic society, which has (over-)protected so many members from a familiarity with Nature and death, has created an expectation (at all levels) that "big Daddy govt" can save them. When the pandemic comes, there is no question that the govt can't (possibly) save them, and people will die, and it will be lots and lots of people. So why can't we just accept that, and try to do our best to keep our SOCIETY continuing through and after the pandemic? If we "waste" the vaccine on the elderly and medically compromised, and don't save it for the people who, by chance or vocational choice, are necessary to keep the majority of the population from falling into anarchy and destruction, is that a good choice?
Did not the lessons of Katrina have any impact on these people? If the police desert as in New Orleans (or, as it turns out -- were phantom employees who didn't exist at all!), or are struck down (sick or dead) by the pandemic, as would happen were they NOT the first in line for vaccines and treatment -- who will keep order in the streets? Do people truly believe anything has changed since Katrina? Will the black poor be any more prepared or any less likely to riot and loot? (And oh, come on: If we're going to be facing a global pandemic, it's time to start speaking the truth! It's NOT the white poor who riot and loot! Remember Watts, Cincinnati, Newark, Detroit, Los Angeles, Chicago, New Orleans?! More than 30 cities in this country have seen black riots. Shall we pretend it's not true, and develop our plans on the basis of politically correct lies? Didn't they do that before Katrina? Look what happened there! Can you honestly say it's not going to happen again next time? Remember Toledo just a couple of weeks ago, anyone?!)
If our plans to manage this pandemic are based on foolish and politically correct falsehoods, how will this society survive? If we vaccinate grannies and AIDS patients before firefighters, who will fight the fires? (Does anyone think fires WON'T break out just because everyone is sick?) If we vaccinate parents of infants before first responders and police, who will staff the ambulances and the hospital emergency rooms and who will keep order in the streets? It WON'T be the elderly and the medically compromised!
I also prioritize the parents of young children and pregnant women *after* the people necessary to keep the society running. As harsh as it sounds -- children and parents can be replaced (numerically, not individually; the govt is SUPPOSED to be planning for the country, not the individual!). The necessity for a continued/maintained/repaired infrastructure of the country for those who survive, and those who, after the pandemic finally ends, can become parents to orphans, and new parents, is higher than the necessity for current parents and children!
But no, we'll continue lying and prevaricating right up until the lights go out and the rioting starts.
Avalanche
You might want to read a $10 book called God"s Strategy for the Bird Flu Pandemic by Glen Talbott. Its available thru Barns and Noble. Why?
Spokane was the most healthy city in the world in 1918 because John G Lake taught his people to Pray against the flu. Not one person died in Dr Lakes church. My realitives were there.
Glen Talbott
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