Wednesday, August 13, 2008

August 12 Flu Update

Commentary posted on ProMed criticizes the site's decision not to post suspected Indonesian cases until the government confirms them.

Is H9N2 a more likely pandemic candidate?

Hong Kong has opted to begin importing poultry from Britain again.

This columnist said that Obama passed a law requiring the government to report on pandemic prep.

Azerbaijan says it needs help preparing for a pandemic.

"Citizen" column on unthinkable and unstoppable pandemic.


At 6:32 PM, Blogger Wulfgang said...


At no surprise, I am in complete agreement with Randy Kruger’s comment to ProMED – to be “flexible in reporting suspected H5N1 human cases”. I believe we are all staring at unusual times, and a very real possibility of an emerging influenza pandemic starting without proper recognition or affirmation - where it just doesn’t make sense to not report “suspected cases” unless they are confirmed by the Indonesian government and the World Health Organization - especially in an endemic hotspot like North Sumatra in Indonesia. Simply said, in view of the fact that there is probably not one country in the entire world that will want to openly admit that they were the origin of a deadly pandemic, we have to accept the fact that to preserve their local economies and preserve social stability, subversive actions are being made by these countries to deny clusters and human infections.

Let’s also face the fact that, aside from the MSM and independent medical source reports like ProMED, no true risk-assessment methodologies exist (that I am aware of) that integrates and transforms the traditional vulnerability assessments of flu viruses into a true influenza pandemic risk-management process. It doesn’t matter in my opinion if the risk is from H5N1, H7N3, H7N7, or H9N2, and who “the sleeper” really is - all are known to have caused human infections, and all could “reassort” with a seasonal virus like H3N2 or H1Nx (or example) - and once airborne transmission is reached we are going to have a major world crisis on our hands any way one want’s to cut it. The million dollar question is everyone’s mind will only be: how pathogenic (deadly) will it be and how quickly can we develop a matched vaccine.

While I don’t necessarily agree in total with your Georgia “Citizen” article about an unthinkable and unstoppable pandemic, I do absolutely believe that it is only a matter of time before the “unthinkable happens again”, and we face “incalculable numbers of deaths and major disruptions to our world infrastructure”. The cardinal rule for all nations and individuals to follow should be: if you fail to plan for a pandemic, then you are in essence planning to fail.

I liked your piece on Obama. The guy’s actually quite impressive and astute when it comes down to it. He might just win.



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