Saturday, December 22, 2007

December 21 Flu Update

5 Indonesians are now suspected to have bird flu. They appear to be the same area, but cluster characteristics are unclear.

Update: patients cleared. Stand down.

CIDRAP on a stabilized situation in Pakistan.

WHO is not recommending mass vaccination, due to lack of H2H transmission.

A dead buzzard is found in Hong Kong with H5N1.

WHO says H2H unclear in China case.

Revere blogs WHO's "close contact" conclusion.

ProMed also has this. Note mod comment attributing the close contact transmission to a genetic predisposition, not the contact per se.

ProMed on the new outbreak in Germany.

Britain's chief scientist did a close out interview with the Times (UK) and discussed bird flu.

Naturalist writes on bird flu, including natural ways to build a strong immune system.

Indiana is prepared for a pandemic.


At 1:59 PM, Blogger Wulfgang said...


So, I see the five patients who were transferred to the Persahabatan Hospital from the Banten province in Indonesia are now officially cleared after two separate internal labs tests for H5N1. I think this is a very good example of why the Indonesian CFR rate is running higher than 80% - either false negatives, misdiagnosis, or just plain deception seems to be occurring, which causes their total reported number of human infections to be understated.. After all, we are talking about a country whose chief health minister firmly believes the Islamic theory that most malevolent diseases are conjured up and foisted on them by the rich western capitalistic nations. All five members of this family were probably stuffed full of Tamiflu during the first days of onset and hospitalization, which is masking the results. I know, my statements are totally out of order – but so are their flimsy explanations.

I see from your news articles that the WHO has cleverly manufactured new buzz words to describe what is going on in Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, China, Egypt and Indonesia: only “very limited human to human transmission as a result of close contact in a very circumscribed area”, and “no evidence of sustained human to human transmission”, and "no cause for concern". In my opinion, any country in the world that is depending on the WHO political appeasers to provide early pandemic warning or timely vaccination guidance, really better think carefully. The WHO appears to me to be expert functionaries at “clerk of court” and “notary functions”, fair at CSI medical interpretations, and very poor at candor and transparent communications to the public. They seem to be serving as experts at documenting the H5N1 event outbreaks and follow up throughout the world, but are extremely myopic and naive in their epidemiological interpretations and only offer up simplistic analysis and non-specific communiqués (i.e,“no cause for alarm” pabulum) . Most of us third parties find mountains of critical and relevant information on avian receptor bindings and matches, sub-clades, regional strains, from independent research sources and NGO’s, not from the WHO or CDC.

Curiously, the WHO issues a news release stating “ there is no evidence available that would say that we should begin vaccinating populations across the board with H5N1 at this point in order to prevent a pandemic because it is not known what may cause a pandemic”. I wonder who the “no vaccinate” news release is aimed at, Ms Supari? She allegedly has already begun vaccine trials on a limited basis on the poor schmucks in her country. Haven’t heard a peep out of her on that subject, and no doubt won’t until something goes awry, then the moron will launch phase II of her western capitalist smear campaign.

The best indicator that we will be in danger of an actual avian pandemic, is when countries like the Swiss and Japanese, and the major military powers, move out over night on a moments notice, and start vaccination pre-priming. The WHO investigators will still be copiously taking notes and documenting data for posterity and wondering why Tamiflu no longer works, because they still will not have figured out that the virus became so resistant, it is no longer effective. And this is what I see occurring at some point. Even the military powers of the world, as “gate keepers”, cannot afford to sit on their haunches while the WHO jacks people around with their Greenspan-like double talk.

Like Revere says, “I guess they don’t want to alarm us. Or something”.

My interpretation of what I am seeing: the WHO officials are too busy taking pictures and snapshots with their Polaroid’s of the trees so they can write their medical history book, with copious forwards and acknowledgements – they aren’t even seeing the forest because of all of the trees. They seem to be missing the entire movie premier which appears to be starting.



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