Thursday, June 07, 2007

June 7 Flu Update

Three new human cases are suspected in Vietnam.

A new Vietnamese province has been hit by bird flu.

China is stepping up surveillance along its border with Vietnam.

Birds are sick in Malaysia, but no people, they say.

Despite problems in neighboring countries, there is said to be no bird flu in Thailand.

On yesterday's big mutation story from Indonesia, ProMed has this. Note mod comment that published scientific data will be required before story moves off caution list.

ProMed on a serosurvey in Indonesia.

More bird flu spreading in Wales.

Pakistan says it is initiating bird flu surveillance steps.

Revere blogs the survey of physicians, who give passing notice to being worried about bird flu. He wonders what they are reading.

Australia called on Asian countries to share bird flu info and vaccines.

The Australian Health Minister says he will be the last person to get a vaccine or Tamiflu...

West Salem, WI asks if we are ready for the bird flu.

People in SE Idaho are asked--what is in your pandemic kit?

2 Comments:

At 6:35 PM, Blogger Wulfgang said...

Orange;

Not your standard post from me today…

One of the benefits of your blog site, is that on occasion, your articles themselves are not the real news, but point further to controversial topics and discourses which are (like Revere’s Effective Measure), quite controversial.

Revere’s article, in particular, on the survey of physicians which revealed more than half weren’t worried abut a bird flu pandemic, drew many pro and con comments from a variety of his readers. The entire lengthy thread is definitely one which everyone should read. The controversy of the discussion mainly center’s on – “why should we worry about an avian virus like H5N1” – when it has not killed one human being in the US, which has a population of 300 Million people ?

I would submit the following:

• The number of infected poultry dying from H5N1 in Indonesia, Vietnam, and now Malaysia, is increasing at an alarming rate. People usually don’t get concerned about s bunch of dying birds (me either, as long as KFC stays open), but it has now begun serving as a leading indicator that the virus is re-evolving further in these countries.

• The “case fatality rate” (CFR)of humans is climbing higher in these countries, primarily as reported by Indonesia – and the virus is “apparently” becoming more lethal. We all know this has to be epidemiologically verified, but the facts speak for themselves: most of the human deaths being reported now, do not involve people who lived in closed proximity with their chickens. Whether the CFR is 80% or 100% is almost immaterial, it is now turning fatal enough when someone gets infected, he usually dies. Individuals that don’t die, must be supported by extraordinary medical measures and attention. This is extreme cause for concern.

• Approximately one half of (49% or 3.2 Billion) the entire’s worlds’ population of human beings (6.6 Billion), live in the Indo/China/Asia area where H5N1 is firmly entrenched in the environment. This represents an astounding risk to humanity and the entire world. In addition, the virus is still prevalent and lurking in Egypt, Nigeria and most of Sub-Sahara Africa and represents a similar omnipresent threat there.

• While the use of the effusive “Tamiflu blanketing approach” appears to be working to stave off a human pandemic so far in these remote villages, there is very little evidence that mass poultry vaccinations are effective to stop the virus spread. The virus has evolved to spread continuously through a variety of means, and is no longer directly associated to cycles, influenza seasons, or even “waves”.

• There is every indication that H5N1, or another similar novel avian viruses, will continue to evolve and mutate in an undetermined number of hosts. The total number of infected hosts today is indeterminable and incalculable. This is also extreme cause for concern. In essence, scientists and the WHO really don’t know how big the problem actually is.

I continue to hang around your blog site Orange, Revere’s, and many others, because I believe H5N1 represents the biggest threat to mankind, since the Black Plague of the Middle Ages. It has the potential to far out shadow the Great Pandemic of 1918 in its lethality. Yet, it has not killed a single person in the US - but it has the ability to significantly and quickly cull one-half of the world’s human population in the Indo/China/Asia area, at minimum, over a few months time – for starters. Add in the Middle Eastern and African nations, and a full three fourths of the world’s population is at risk of infection at a blink of the eye.

If these physician’s who are not concerned about pandemic influenza only knew how concerned the federal government (agencies, the military planners, and the knowledgeable experts) really are, and the extensive planning and logistical preparations that are being made behind the scenes…they would be very concerned.

Trust me on this.

Wulfgang

 
At 9:21 PM, Anonymous Mary Ann said...

[Quote="Wulfgang"]"If these physician’s who are not concerned about pandemic influenza only knew how concerned the federal government (agencies, the military planners, and the knowledgeable experts) really are, and the extensive planning and logistical preparations that are being made behind the scenes…they would be very concerned."[/quote]

Why do NOT the physicians know what the Federal Government are planning? Why are there not many articles in physicians frequented periodicals? Why is NOT the Federal Government requiring an online extension familiarity course for all physicians and personnel in the medical field? Why are NOT there TV, cable, satellite announcements telling all of us to set aside 90 days of beans, rice, canned foods, baby supplies, medicines, and toiletry items. WHY?

 

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