The Coming Influenza Pandemic?

Curtain Please

2008-09-02T10:25:00.000-04:00

After a mind-boggling 1,245 posts spread out over what is approaching four years, I've decided to put an end to this blog. There are several reasons for it. First, readership is reaching pretty low levels, compared to where it had been in other years. Second, I have been increasingly unable to get the blog updated and it now looks like it might be difficult to update consistently over the next two months. And finally, there are now plenty of other sources for this information.

I had hoped to make it to the end of four years, at least, but it was not to be.

Thanks to everyone for reading and commenting as much as you have. This has been a great experience. I've had contacts with publications, major media outlets, great comments from people from all over the world, and a huge amount of education on the topic. I was even the Yahoo! site of the day at one point.

I started the blog on December 27, 2004 because I was planning to follow some news feeds on bird flu, and figured I might as well post them, too. It lasted far longer and generated far more interest than I thought it would. In the beginning, if it hadn't been for Recombinomics, there are many days when there would have been no news.

There are also certainly other similar blogs that give a similar outlook to the topic. I would point you to:

Crofsblog

(The remainder of these links I have cribbed from Crofsblog's vacation post).

SophiaZoe's Pandemic Chronicle

Mike Coston's Avian Flu Diary

Ma Yingshen's Chen Qi

The Reveres' Effect Measure

Ed Hammond's Immunocompetent

Scott McPherson's Web Presence

Thanks everyone.

No Update Today

2008-08-28T08:45:00.000-04:00

Events have conspired to the contrary.

August 26 Flu Update

2008-08-27T09:53:00.002-04:00

Revere has this blog post that is the most important news of the day. Are St. Jude's, the CDC and NIH seeking an international patent for a vaccine based on Indonesian vaccine. Isn't that what we have been critical of Indonesia for doing?

Novavax has a new, novel vaccine that has some encouraging reports, making the company a bunch of headlines this morning.

A new type of bird flu vaccine that uses a mock version of the virus appears to protect people against infection and is safe enough to continue testing, Novavax Inc. said on Tuesday.

One thing I have always worried about in a pandemic is the spectre of mandatory vaccination. See here for people who are wary of even garden variety vaccines.

Sharp has a new air purifier.

Geese shot during hunting season will be testing for bird flu in New York.

August 25 Flu Update

2008-08-26T08:50:00.002-04:00

People following the flu virus know about NS1, the influenza protein that is believed to play a key role in infection. Researchers from the University of Texas and Rutgers have done some apparently important work on identifying the structure of NS1.

The researchers have determined the three-dimensional structure of a site on an influenza A virus protein that binds to one of the human protein targets, thereby suppressing a person's natural defenses to the infection and paving the way for the virus to replicate efficiently. This so-called NS1 virus protein is shared by all influenza A viruses isolated from humans, including avian influenza, or bird flu, and the 1918 pandemic influenza virus.

A seminar is being held in Chicago for businesses looking to prepare for a potential pandemic.

Fear of bird flu is causing the Philippines to curtail a regional "bird trapping" activity.

Strains of flu in Indonesia and Bangladesh are similar.

The military needs to be "ready" for disasters.....check this opinion piece out, as follows:

The message was simple. "It's about being prepared for the first 72 hours after an emergency-situation occurs. We want people to consider how they'll notify their families and where they'll meet," she said.

An alert reader shipped this along....did you know that deadly toxins are shipped via Fed Ex? Military leaders are reviewing safety rules and suspending lab activities in the meantime.

Mike the Mad Scientist at Scienceblogs writes about the bacterial aspect of influenza, which was recently published.

Bird flu fight gets publicity in Sierra Leone.

Cameroon is also re-launching its poultry industry after a bird flu scare.

August 24 Flu Update

2008-08-25T08:27:00.003-04:00

Employing the oldest PR trick in the books, Indonesia is combining free food with bird flu education.

Some birds died in Hawaii, but apparently it was botulism.

Thailand is looking to expand its seasonal vaccine program, with benefits to its avian flu program.

August 23 Flu Update

2008-08-24T09:34:00.002-04:00

The United Arab Emirates is prepping against the bird flu.

August 22 Flu Update

2008-08-23T09:26:00.002-04:00

Questions are raised in New Zealand about the potential for a Tamiflu resistant flu.

A trial is now testing a universal flu vaccine.

CIDRAP with the story about bacterial infections during the 1918 pandemic.

A pilot program is underway to test insurance for farmers against livestock diseases.

Listen, its hard enough to get people to vote now, I don't recommend following this plan of giving flu shots at polling places.

Here's a review of a new book just out....A social history of influenza. Sounds interesting. The social aspects of influenza are the ones that fascinate me.

August 21 Flu Update

2008-08-22T08:50:00.002-04:00

A human vaccine from Vietnam is said to be effective.

The CDC is collecting pandemic survival stories from the Spanish Flu.

"Complacency is enemy No. 1 when it comes to preparing for another influenza pandemic," Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the CDC, said in a statement. "These stories, told so eloquently by survivors, family members and friends from past pandemics, serve as a sobering reminder of the devastating impact that influenza can have and reading them is a must for anyone involved in public health preparedness."

Birds in North Dakota remain clear on surveillance.

From New Jersey....its not if but when.

Youth in Arkansas learn about nature, including testing wild birds for bird flu.

Alabama community worries about where to store bodies during mass fatalities.

Was bird flu a "spurious scare" for which no one has been held accountable....

Maybe Lab meat is the answer....

Here, a conspiracy theorist says the governments and pharma are going to release bird flu and start a pandemic.

August 21 Flu Update

2008-08-21T13:42:00.001-04:00

Liberal opposition in Canada says government cuts to budget threaten bird flu programs, among others.

Is a world food crisis coming and could bird flu play a role.

August 19 Flu Update

2008-08-20T08:59:00.002-04:00

The NIH has more on pneumonia causing most deaths in the 1918 pandemic. This is research by Jeffrey Taubenberger, who is a big star in the 1918 research space. Does this mean 1918 could not have happened in an anti-biotic era?

Preparations for diagnosing, treating and preventing bacterial pneumonia should be among highest priorities in influenza pandemic planning, they write. "We are encouraged by the fact that pandemic planners are already considering and implementing some of these actions,” says Dr. Fauci.

CIDRAP on the long-living immunity from the 1918 pandemic.

In Singapore, the financial sectors will test themselves against a pandemic.

Indonesia is enlisting scouts in the fight against bird flu.

Bird flu is involved in a war of words between Brazil and Indonesia.

How do you look for bird flu in North Dakota....read on.

San Bernadino County (CA) is getting a big grant for preparedness, including pan flu.

Canada is holding a national disaster response meeting to discuss whether the nation is vulnerable to a crisis like a severe storm or pandemic.

Adjuvant tested for bird flu will be tested against HIV.

Blogpost on the "hype" related to bird flu pandemic.

August 18 Flu Update

2008-08-19T10:58:00.002-04:00

CIDRAP reports on trends in Indonesia's bird flu cases. This is a very revealing piece of work....

Of the 125 patients who were hospitalized, 104 were diagnosed with pneumonia immediately or shortly after admission.

The authors report there were 11 case clusters that involved 28 patients. Infected patients who were not part of clusters were more likely to die, but researchers did not find any differences between cluster patients and noncluster patients in terms of when they presented to a healthcare facility, whether they received oseltamivir, or how soon they received the drug.

Patients with secondary cases were more likely to survive than primary case-patients, and they received antiviral treatment about 3 days earlier than primary case-patients. The investigators acknowledge that secondary cases may have involved other early interventions as well. They also report that patients who had indirect exposure to the virus were more likely to die.

Maryland "Nurse Detectives" work on bird flu and other diseases.

A PR firm won an award for a its pandemic influenza materials.

Bird flu is used as a reason not to require free range poultry in California.

Effect Measure blogs the story we ran yesterday about the antibodies in 1918 flu survivors. (Which is all over the media today, by the way.) Along with some scientific explanation, Revere adds some cogent perspective.

We still don't know how typical these people are. After all, they apparently didn't get sick in 1918 despite being infected and they have a good enough immune system to last into their nineties. Maybe most of us aren't so lucky and have waning immunity with the years. But this is some slick work and now that we have the actual antibodies in sufficient quantity to study we can begin to ask what features of the 1918 virus made it vulnerable. How much of this is transferable to bird flu, the current pandemic worry, is difficult to say. These antibodies didn't protect against or react with H5 flu viruses so they aren't a therapy for bird flu. But understanding the basic science of influenza virus is always a plus.

Debate breaks out on ProMed about whether it should report suspected (not officially confirmed) cases from Indonesia.

August 17 Flu Update

2008-08-17T22:53:00.003-04:00

South Korea says it is now bird flu free.

Interesting study looked at the blood of 1918 flu survivors. Yes, after all this time, they still have the antibodies. What an amazing thing our immune system is.

This is something that never seems to get resolved. Did the Spanish Flu kill on its own, or through opportunistic bacterial infections (which would help to render the likelihood of a killer pandemic as low in the anti-biotic era.)

No Update Today

2008-08-17T09:20:00.001-04:00

.....

August 15 Flu Update

2008-08-16T09:52:00.002-04:00

FAO is consulting with Vietnam and recommends that the country change its poultry vaccination schedule. Vaccination has been widely employed in Vietnam, to mixed results.

FAO is also recommending that Vietnam have private-public cost sharing on vaccination programs. Wonder how that will work with small farmers?

Do skyrocketing poultry imports into China indicate more knowledge than they say they have about avian flu outbreaks?

This story is similar, about avian influenza and the food supply in Africa.

Japan has donated Tamiflu to Vietnam.

August 14 Flu Update

2008-08-14T21:35:00.003-04:00

Study on Indonesia shows that 80% of cases are fatal. Oddly, it reaffirms that every anti-virals help, but notes that goal is rarely achieved.

Would GPs show up for work during a pandemic? Australia thinks they may not.

Of course, the if pandemic flu broke out in China during the Olympics, it would have huge pandemic potential because everyone would scatter to the four corners of the Earth after the Olympics were over. Here, a reporter from Edmonton looks at that very situation.

Researchers continue to make comments about H9 causing a pandemic, here on CIDRAP.

ProMed has an interesting story on bird flu in swans which they say merits a close read.

I suspect that they demonstrate why adult swans are found dead. The question is how far can a sick swan fly -- 'sick' is a variable term -- and survive, if it even wished to fly while convalescing from this infection; to appreciate risk this should be recalculated as the prevalence rate of infected flying swans.

Developments in Nigeria (new strain) have Ghana worried.

Nature blog has the raspberries for British press, which gives more attention to a quck flu testing machine than it does to a new strain in Nigeria.

Here's a story on the flu testing machine.

Bird flu testing has a higher priority in Nigeria.

Laos has a new law that will reform veterinary service.

Cleveland Plain Dealer runs bird flu primer.

N. Sulawesi has distributed poultry vaccines, but there isn't enough for all the chickens.

Chinese researchers are testing a combination of statins and caffeine to fight bird flu.

Interesting reader comments from Indonesia when there was a suspected cluster of 13 people.

No Update Today

2008-08-14T07:47:00.000-04:00

August 12 Flu Update

2008-08-13T09:07:00.002-04:00

Commentary posted on ProMed criticizes the site's decision not to post suspected Indonesian cases until the government confirms them.

Is H9N2 a more likely pandemic candidate?

Hong Kong has opted to begin importing poultry from Britain again.

This columnist said that Obama passed a law requiring the government to report on pandemic prep.

Azerbaijan says it needs help preparing for a pandemic.

"Citizen" column on unthinkable and unstoppable pandemic.

August 11 Flu Update

2008-08-12T08:55:00.002-04:00

Today's big news....Nigeria has reported a new strain of bird flu, raising many questions, as below

"The detection of a new avian influenza virus strain in Africa raises serious concerns as it remains unknown how this strain has been introduced to the continent," said Scott Newman, International Wildlife Coordinator of FAO's Animal Health Service.

The fatality rate is falling this year in Indonesia, but I wonder, given the small sample sizes, about relevance.

Meanwhile, N. Sumatra is remaining alert.

In the UK, a man was prosecuted for improperly disposing of bird carcasses.

Cambodia is holding educational seminars to train the people who work in live markets on how to control bird flu.

The US has given funds to Ethiopia to help combat avian influenza, among other things.

August 10 Flu Update

2008-08-10T22:00:00.002-04:00

.....and we're back.

13 people in Indonesia were tested for bird flu....they are all reported to be negative.

San Juan health official tells local audience that a pandemic is likely.

The Japanese are helping to fight animal diseases in Myanmar.

A bird flu planning meeting was held in Thailand.

Au Sable River Dusk

2008-07-31T11:15:00.000-04:00

Au Sable River Dusk
Originally uploaded by mtsn

I will be on vacation looking at scenes like this from today until August 10. I will update again on August 11 or August 12.

July 29 Flu Update

2008-07-30T10:04:00.002-04:00

Thai paper looks at recent reports (US and UK) of poor pandemic planning.

Meanwhile, Thailand is said to have four potential new cases, though this appears sketchy.

ProMed on the South Korean cat and the outbreak in Nigeria.

CIDRAP reports on the GAO report that states are looking for more guidance from the federal government on flu planning

Helen Branswell on Canadian research that will look at remote and isolated rural tribes to study how flu spreads. The thinking is that they are a better example because there are few contacts outside the tribe.

The government in West Bengal says it is taking steps to combat bird flu.

July 28 Flu Update

2008-07-29T09:22:00.002-04:00

Everyone who knows about 1918 knows that the mobility created by WWI probably played a role in spreading influenza. With that in mind, the fact that bird flu was found at an Olympic venue rings all kinds of alarm bells. Of course, it is the equestrian facility, not the track.

A cat in South Korea has bird flu.

There's also a new outbreak in Nigeria.

A medical anthropologist has written a novel about the bird flu called the Eye of the Virus.

Personal Finance Blog looks at bird flu risk.

July 27 Flu Update

2008-07-28T09:25:00.002-04:00

Japanese scientists are making progress on how to block the replication of the flu virus.

Louisiana is increasing flu controls because it is on the Mississippi flyway.

The FAO steps in to help Myanmar.

New novel weaves pandemic into the narrative.

No Update Today

2008-07-27T10:13:00.000-04:00

July 25 Flu Update

2008-07-26T10:08:00.002-04:00

CIDRAP reports that bird flu was found in the markets of Nigeria.

EU has approved GSK's pre-pandemic vaccine.

CIDRAP writes that nursing homes are not ready for a pandemic.

British Turkey producer is trying to fix image damaged in part by avian flu.

July 24 Flu Update

2008-07-25T09:23:00.002-04:00

The Federal vaccine allocation plan is basically the same, focusing on critical workers first.

Revere blogs this, noting that the policy puts the military second, and wonders why. (My note: this will get people going about whether the military is expected to "maintain order" during a pandemic).

No Update Today

2008-07-24T08:45:00.000-04:00

Events have conspired

July 22 Flu Update

2008-07-23T09:46:00.002-04:00

Australian Sunshine Coast warned about pandemic if incorrectly.

The University of Michigan says more than half of nursing homes lack a plan for pandemic flu.

Ohio has taken a strong tact in TV ads to get the attention of the public on pandemic flu.

Here's a link to the actual spot. Not too bad, really.

Morman said visits to the Web site have more than tripled since the ads began. Funded by a $400,000 federal pandemic flu preparedness grant, the ads will begin running statewide Monday, July 28, and conclude Aug. 8, she said.

July 21 Flu Update

2008-07-22T09:25:00.002-04:00

Without any more links, just a quick note that the newspaper story that the death of 75 million Britons was "inevitable" is all over the web.

With its latest outbreak occuring outside the normal season, South Korea will monitor for bird flu year round.

Uganda got some World Bank money to fight bird flu.

Interesting blog post on bird flu from a man who moved away from Wisconsin to get away from the liberals (??)

The military in Hawaii is getting ready to fight the bird flu.

USA Today article sent by an alert reader. Notes that in a few short years we went from ravaging store counters of duct tape to yawning in the face of potential disaster.

July 20 Flu Update

2008-07-21T09:08:00.002-04:00

Britain's House of Lords hears a briefing on lifestyles, infectious disease and the "dysfunctional" WHO--overall, an alarming report that made headlines around the world.

Australia says this report was "unhelpful"

North Korea now claims to have a quick bird flu test.

Report from Thailand says the bird flu mutates every time it infects a human.

Australia article cites how large international religious celebrations often spread contagious disease including influenza.

Swabi Pakistan is bird flu free.

ProMed on the report from Vietnam that vaccinated poultry were getting bird flu. Note mod comment:

Viet Nam has opted for vaccination of poultry (including waterfowl) since 2005, with quite satisfactory results. However, it is known that vaccination cannot achieve disease eradication unless it is combined with effectively applied, severe biosecurity measures.

July 19 Flu Update

2008-07-20T12:33:00.002-04:00

ProMed on the suspected death in Indonesia.

Minalin, Philippines says it is ready for the bird flu season.

July 18 Flu Update

2008-07-19T10:34:00.003-04:00

CIDRAP on the recent death in Indonesia. Note typically unclear exposure route.

Education now going on in the Solomon Islands.

The Niagara region of Canada is planning for a pandemic, and it includes technology.

Nepal identifies areas as vulnerable to bird flu.

July 17 Flu Update

2008-07-18T08:57:00.002-04:00

Relatives say a man died of bird flu in Indonesia.

In the news that is all over the place this morning, Vical says its DNA vaccine does stimulate sufficient immune response.

Two studies, reported by CIDRAP here, look at the reasons behind Indonesia's staggering fatality rate with H5N1. The ultimate question is this? Is it the virus, or is there something in that country's system that would mitigate the fatality rate in other countries, even if the exact same virus went to a pandemic level.

According to the second report, Indonesia, like most developing countries, has few primary or secondary care hospitals with the protocols, isolation rooms, or cardio-respiratory support equipment to treat patients critically ill with H5N1 influenza. "This is probably the largest single contributor to the high mortality recorded," says the report, written by Sardikin Giriputro, MD, and colleagues

Bird flu hits Vietnam, but with a twist---the birds were vaccinated against bird flu. Obviously, this will get people to wondering about whether this is tangible evidence of a virus mutating in a significant way.

Don't recall seeing this before, but this article appears to indicate that Turkey had seven animals cases in the first third of this year.

They are holding a flu summit in West Virginia.

A flu drill was held in Dalton, Georgia.

Like many states, Indiana is going to do a pandemic drill and flu shot drive at the same time.

Article from the Philippines details what author learned at flu training for journalists.

July 16 Flu Update

2008-07-17T08:55:00.002-04:00

New rules in Canada are going to restrict free ranges chickens, ostensibly to fight bird flu, but free-range farmers suspect commercial motives. (This is just the kind of human element that is difficult to build into pandemic planning).

The World Bank has pledged money to Haiti to fight bird flu.

Good example of how scientific research doesn't always fare so well through language and scientific literacy barriers.

Reuters story that Revere blogged yesterday on Indonesia's defense of stopping virus sharing.

Indiana paper looks back at the Spanish Flu in that country.

July 15 Flu Update

2008-07-16T09:10:00.002-04:00

Bird flu outbreak reported in southern Vietnam.

Reports says research from the Argonne national lab has identified the "dragon" protein which has the potential to be significant, as stated below.

This unexpected relationship between the two subunits could inspire a number of different therapies or vaccines for H5N1 that rely on muzzling the "dragon's" jaws with another molecule or chemical compound that would block the PB1 subunit's access to the PA site, according to Joachimiak. "If we can put a bit in the dragon's mouth, we can slow or even potentially someday stop the spread of avian flu," he said. "Since we are talking about a relatively small protein surface area, finding a way to inhibit RNA replication in H5N1 seems very feasible."

CIDRAP reports that Indonesia published an article in a medical journal on why it is withholding virus samples.

"If the world continues to operate in this way, the discrepancies will become wider and wider," the article says. "The poor will become poorer and the richer become richer. It is the responsibility of all nations to change this situation."

SE Idaho is conducting a "blog exercise" to test informing the public on bird flu.

Indiana is doing some pandemic planning, taking a hard look at the realities.

July 14 Flu Update

2008-07-15T09:52:00.002-04:00

The CDC lab that houses the bird flu virus in Atlanta lost power for an hour, believe it or not.

India going on "war footing" to fight bird flu.

US News and World Report on the supercomputer looking for new bird flu drugs.

The GAO looks at hospitals "surge planning," a key point in how a pandemic would be handled (CIDRAP)

The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation awards fund to the University of Michigan to study the Spanish Flu Pandemic.

Monday---No Post

2008-07-14T07:24:00.000-04:00

On the road all day today, check back tomorrow.

July 11 Bird Flu Update

2008-07-13T11:10:00.002-04:00

The US worked with Tanzania to help improve its public health and bird flu response.

H5N1 can affect Bovine Calves.

Letter to the Editor in Cambodia reviews bird flu training going on there.

Japan has warned Nigeria about bird flu.

July 11 Flu Update

2008-07-12T09:42:00.002-04:00

After six months, a ban on the poultry trade is lifted in India.

CIDRAP says a Japanese study shows no psychological effect of Tamiflu on teens (there have been reports of it being linked to teen suicide).

In Wales, people are told that there could be 3,000 deaths a week.

Nepal says it is bird flu free.

South Dakota audience hears about the possibility of a bird flu pandemic.

Muscle Shoals AL is also preparing for a pandemic.

July 10 Flu Update

2008-07-11T08:58:00.002-04:00

Terribly shocking news. Melanie (who has commented here), from Just a Bump in the Beltway, and one of the founders of the Flu Wiki has passed on unexpectedly. Revere and others post about it, here. Our condolences.

ProMed has a new report from Vietnam, and also a declaration that bird flu is endemic in Egypt.

China lifted a quarantine in Quandong.

More from Nature, and an editorial on the bird flu a few years on from its big bird flu issue.

CIDRAP on the story from Hong Kong on the waning avian vaccine. Also note that Egypt has belatedly filed some avian outbreaks going back a few months.

UWM scientists are contributing more work to identify the genetic structure of the virus.

More on work at Penn on a bird flu vaccine.

Indiana will be discussing its pandemic ethics plan coming up soon.

July 9 Flu Update

2008-07-10T09:23:00.002-04:00

Article covers DNA vaccines from a PharmTech perspective.

CIDRAP covers the Purdue story on problems in planning for a pandemic.

A message the researchers heard from all the counties was that flu patients would not be the only demand on healthcare organizations during a pandemic. Officials said other healthcare needs would continue, such as trauma, childbirth, and medical emergencies. Consequently, not all beds could be allocated to flu patients, and hospitals will need to take steps to prevent flu from spreading to other patients.

In the face of this reality, "Almost all counties were giving consideration to altered standards of care to stretch resources, but were wary of this option due to liability concerns and lack of statutory protection from malpractice claims, a concern heightened by lack of guidance from state and federal governments," the report states.

Cosmos (The Science of Everything) has long story about whether bird flu has passed.

There are other reasons to worry less about bird flu. The media has repeatedly said that a pandemic is 'overdue' or even 'long overdue'. This claim is not based on any virological dictum, but simply on the historical pattern of outbreaks – one every 10 to 15 years or so from 1918 to 1977 and then a pregnant pause until now. But in fact the longer H5N1 'tries', the less likely it is to succeed in adapting into a human-transmissible type.

Some scientists now believe H5N1 has had its chance. A virus is not like a volcano, where pressure may build up gradually, leading to an eventual eruption. And a continued non-outbreak doesn't make a future outbreak more likely or more deadly.

Effect Measure blogs this, too, noting that Nature is looking at its special bird flu issue three years ago. It was chilling--included a fictional blog from a healthcare professional during a pandemic.

Declan Butler, who writes for Nature, is back online with an article seemingly in response to the one above.

Although bird flu has since faded from the front pages, media coverage in fact remains sustained and high, as can be seen from a timeline search of the Google News archive.

Local committee in North Dakota is presenting is pandemic plan later today.

Dr. Osterholm is scheduled to give a speech in Colorado.

Finally, courtesy Revere, check out this HealthMap database of informaton on various diseases from around the world. Very interesting.

July 8 Flu Update

2008-07-09T09:24:00.002-04:00

Hong Kong has scaled back its bird flu alert with the absence of cases.

An article published recently in a medical journal says that the mutations needed for H5N1 to go H2H have been identified.

"The mutations needed for the emergence of a potential pandemic virus are likely to originate and be selected within infected human tissues," said Professor Dr Prasert Auewarakul from Mahidol University, Thailand. "We analyzed specific molecules called haemagglutinin on viruses derived from fatal human cases. Our results suggest new candidate mutations that may allow bird flu to adapt to humans."

Excellent Purdue study says that when fighting pandemic, we have to look at the people who are affected, and not merely the nation or the region.

"Most public health experts who are leading planning efforts for an influenza outbreak are focusing on specific geographic areas, usually counties, as defined by political lines," said George Avery, an assistant professor of health and kinesiology and member of the Purdue Alternative Care Site Planning Team. "This is problematic because if there is an outbreak, planners need to take into account the people and health-care systems that are or are not around them.

"Counties that border other states may experience nonresidents seeking treatment in their area, while other counties may be home to the only isolated hospital system in the region and can expect the population from other states to travel there for care. Health care, especially in a crisis, is not defined by county or state lines."

A Hong Kong expert says poultry vaccines are losing their effectiveness.

Australian vet joins bird flu team.

Philippine state says it is vulnerable to the bird flu.

Also from the Philippines, this article wonders how long the nation will remain untouched. (Note airport signs that inform visitors of the lack of bird flu.

Ghanan poultry farmers are urged to improve hygiene on their farms.

July 7 Flu Update

2008-07-08T09:08:00.002-04:00

Scientists are saying that closing the Navy Lab in Indonesia is a bad idea.

Big problems with egg prices in Bangladesh, as poultry farming has yet to resume.

Revere blogs Roche's plan to get businesses to stock up on Tamiflu. He thinks its good for businesses to do, but doesn't see why the government has to get involved.

Tied up this morning

2008-07-07T06:24:00.000-04:00

No post until tomorrow.

July 5 Flu Update

2008-07-06T09:06:00.002-04:00

For good reason, Australia expresses concern about whether Indonesia is going to announce its bird flu cases.

The US has a Naval Medical Research lab in Indonesia that has been involved in the fight against bird flu. Today, Indonesia is considering closing it because it does not benefit them.

Story about vet scientists studying bird flu to help people.

Tanzania is stepping up its fight against bird flu.

Interesting article says US could do more good by studying TB than bird flu.

July 4 Flu Update

2008-07-05T10:50:00.002-04:00

It appears that bird flu vaccines were tested on the homeless in Poland, and 21 of them died.

WHO would like to see a more regional approach to bird flu in East Africa.

Israeli editorial asks why more rapid action was taken for bird flu than AIDS.

Tamiflu and Relenza are said to be equally effective helping children.

Exotic Zanzibar has a partial poultry ban.

A professor in Kyoto says that he can make bird flu vaccine from ostrich eggs--the largest egg in nature.

No Post Today

2008-07-04T07:42:00.000-04:00

Enjoy the holiday, everyone in the US.

July 1 Flu Update

2008-07-03T09:03:00.002-04:00

UC San Diego is working on some research that looks at promising future drug candidates.

UK leading vet agency says that recent events are a reminder of the risk of a global pandemic.

The Council for Agricultural Science and Technology is now providing its issue papers for free, including on bird flu.

The Wall Street Journal asks why, if the US government wants to help during a pandemic, it doesn't just waive the requirement for a prescription to get Tamiflu.

July 1 Flu Update

2008-07-02T09:06:00.003-04:00

Blog at Discover magazine looks at the flu, and especially at H7's move toward human form.

Last week US scientists reported that H7 viruses from recent poultry outbreaks in North America are starting to bind the human form of sialic acid, and losing their ability to bind the bird form. Even worse, an H7 was even isolated from a man with the flu in New York in 2003 and it bound most effectively to the human form [New Scientist blog].

Sinovac vaccine trials hit phase II.

Diocese in UK is recognized for its pandemic plan that gives guidance for the role of faith communities in a pandemic.

Story covers UPenn study on how a new kind of vaccine provides cross-protection by "tricking" the immune system

Hong Kong has resumed live chicken sales.

June 30 Flu Update

2008-07-01T09:06:00.002-04:00

Pacific Rim countries are preparing for bird flu exercises, right after the Olympics.

Australia is told--and not for the first time--that bird flu can't get there.

Immunologist and Nobel prize-winner Peter Doherty says although the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain has killed 240 people overseas, Australia's dry climate and isolation will help prevent the virus entering the country.

"It's not something we have to worry about," he said.

An organization of state health officers has released a report on protecting at-risk populations, because "disasters discriminate."

Japan's bird flu plans are described as "unclear."

CIDRAP on the Hong Kong market curbs.

CIDRAP best practices series reviews Minnesota's plans to communicate with people who speak limited English.

June 29 Flu Update

2008-06-30T09:06:00.002-04:00

Egypt is educating families about fighting the bird flu.

There are also educational programs in Japan.

The bird flu alert in South Korea has been lifted.

June 28 Flu Update

2008-06-29T08:30:00.001-04:00

More on leading scientists who say that bird flu is still a risk.

June 27 Flu Update

2008-06-28T10:32:00.002-04:00

A public official in Pakistan has been punished for a false bird flu alarm.

ProMed with the news on Hong Kong's compensation battle and the Pakistan false alarm.

Bird flu training is a local affair in Cambodia.

WSJ Blog looks at how cheap they are making Tamiflu.

June 26 Flu Update

2008-06-27T09:30:00.002-04:00

The Economist brings its usual high quality and incisive reporting to the subject of bird flu in Southern China, saying that the actions of the government suggest that they know more than they let on. Must read. (My note: when are the Olympics again?)

Another must read from Promed. First, strong tactics are being used to get poultry farmers in Hong Kong to accept a compensation deal, and poultry farmers in Pakistan are made that a less virulent strain of bird flu was called H5N1 by the government.

This is all over the news. Roche has introduced plans to get businesses to stock on Tamiflu, and they have the blessing of the US government.

Hong Kong says live birds cannot be kept in poultry markets overnight.

Laurel MD has been doing pandemic testing.

Same exercise is going on in Wyoming.

June 25 Flu Update

2008-06-26T08:52:00.002-04:00

Usual excellent analysis by Revere on the benefits of screening for bird flu at airports by checking for fevers. Keyword: theatre.

The idea of airport fever screening to keep a pandemic out has a lot of psychological appeal. Unfortunately its benefits are also only psychological: pandemic preparedness theater. There's no magic bullet for warding off a pandemic. The best way to prepare for a pandemic or any other health threat is to have a robust and resilient public health infrastructure.

Apparently acting on tape delay, Mexico has banned Arkansas poultry.

Greenwich CT is testing its flu plan.

Chenango County, NY is also testing its flu plan.

A Toronto firm is partnering with Hunan province on the bird flu.

USAID is working in Sri Lanka on bird flu prevention.

Uganda got $17M from the World Bank to fight bird flu.

June 24th Flu Update

2008-06-25T09:12:00.002-04:00

No translator needed...Portuguese speaking nations get together to talk bird flu.

More culling in Hong Kong.

A health department in the state of Washington is in trouble for purchasing procedures related to its Tamiflu purchase.

June 23 Flu Update

2008-06-24T08:57:00.002-04:00

CIDRAP on the virus re-surfacing in Pakistan, angry farmers in Hong Kong and the FAO telling Vietnam to keep vaccinating poultry for 3-5 years.

Elsewhere, chicken farmers in Hong Kong threatened to release their chickens to protest what they see as an unfair compensation offer from government officials who, after recent H5N1 outbreaks in the city's live poultry markets, are exploring the possibility of phasing out live chicken trading, according to a Jun 20 AFP report.

In other avian influenza developments, experts from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) recently said Vietnam will probably need to continue vaccinating poultry for at least the next 3 to 5 years, according to a Jun 19 statement from the FAO.

ProMed also has the news from Pakistan. Note mod comment:

If the current outbreaks are officially confirmed -- as they appear to be -- this is disappointing and a blow to the Pakistani poultry industry and indeed to the veterinary services which have, reportedly, invested considerable efforts and skill to control and eradicate the epizootic; the declaration of freedom above may have to be reconsidered. Possibly, the current event is due to the unstable situation along the borders with Afghanistan, allowing introduction of infected animals and their products, contaminated feed, etc.

DEFRA in Britain looks at the recent outbreak, concludes it was limited to one place.

Here's an Olympic swimmer who wrote a master's thesis on bird flu.

June 22 Flu Update

2008-06-23T09:03:00.002-04:00

Here's an article right out of the flu playbook. One of the cardinal ideas about bird flu is that it will often be mis-diagnosed, just as it was in 1918. And this report indicates that may be happening now....if nothing else, it cuts a hole in the containment strategy.

Another great article from Helen Branswell. Is the lack of a consistent measurement tool hampering the ability to calibrate the flu vaccine correctly?

Differences in the sensitivity of the tests mean companies could be underestimating or overestimating the power of their vaccines as they try to work out what is the smallest protective dose, experts admit.
As things stand now, there is no way to usefully compare the results of one company's clinical trials for their vaccine with a competitor's findings.

Revere blogs this article as well, saying that its clear from the noise in the vaccine space that commercial interests still believe a pandemic is possible, even as the headlines quiet.

A flu meeting in November will discuss whether WHO should stockpile more pre-pandemic vaccines.

Bird flu, or the fear thereof has caused a cull in Pakistan.

Interesting article from the Times of London. Bernard Matthews, the major poultry producer in Britain who experienced an outbreak last year is shooting back....either giving quality data, or trying to use the situation to blame wild birds and scare people away from free-range turkeys. You can decide.

June 21 Flu Update

2008-06-22T09:55:00.002-04:00

Expert says complacency is the enemy.

"Countries have been on crisis alert for some years and unfortunately the threat is not going away. H5N1 is popping up all over the world, even more frequently than it did two years ago," he said when met at the Institute for Medical Research.

CDC head Julie Gerberding has the same message....

"People have very short attention spans and when something is in the news for a while, it becomes old news and then it's no news," she said at a conference Saturday. "We have to be very strategic to make sure that the leaders and governments fill in for the tendency toward complacency."

The French are said to be continuing to be vigilant on the bird flu.

Bird flu planning also continues in Nigeria.

Thailand has canceled a deal to work with China to build a vaccine plant. WHO says it will step in and help.

Revere has a post about Indonesia's announced plan to....well...lie about what is going on there, and wonders why you would vacation there.

June 20 Flu Update

2008-06-21T08:50:00.002-04:00

ProMed on the news from Indonesia....there are two recent deaths.

North Korea talks are getting ready to start, and might include bird flu.

WHO notes that with a food crisis, H5N1 wiping out poultry only has a worse impact.

No post,, on the road today

2008-06-20T06:00:00.000-04:00

June 18 Flu Update

2008-06-19T12:27:00.002-04:00

The Indonesian Health Minister says bird flu cases over the last six months in the country are down.

Hong Kong health officials says that due to government intervention, there is little risk of human bird flu in that country.

Surveillance shows that Alaska, a migratory pathway, is free of bird flu.

The EU has relaxed the bird flu protection zone in Britain.

CIDRAP on the comments of David Nabarro yesterday on improved pandemic prep with a remaining threat.

Bird flu ruled out in swan death in Wales.

Canadian Letter to Editor chides newspaper for mixing up antivirals and vaccines.

Bedford TN is lauded for its bird flu plan.

Action! Bird flu plan in Nepal begins.

The Chamber of Commerce in Cadiz, KY, heard a pandemic flu talk.

There was also a pandemic drill in Maryland.

June 17 Flu Update

2008-06-18T09:04:00.002-04:00

WHO's David Nabarro says that the global response to H5N1 was "extraordinary" and that the outbreaks are being brought under control "reasonably well".

CIDRAP with a world roundup, including Chinese confirmation of the flu in Guandong (how many days until the Olympics?) and a reported outbreak in Vietnam.

ProMed on the Chinese outbreak, and followup reports on flu control in Britain.

CDC is funding research that will allow medical professionals to discern seasonal and pandemic flu in 3 hours. CIDRAP reports.

CIDRAP with yesterday's vaccine news....the Australian vaccine, and Novartis withdrawing its vaccine.

South Korea has restricteds its bird flu quarantines.

Cambodia released a statement that it is vigilant.

Nigeria is trying to boost poultry farming, including work on how flu compensation can play into the mix.

New York Times covers New York City's pandemic flu exercise.

Pandemic flu exercises in Santa Barbara, CA.

Maryland also held a pandemic flu exercise.

June 16 Flu Update

2008-06-17T08:53:00.002-04:00

Australia claims to have developed a bird flu vaccine that will work against all strains, based on media reports.

The vaccine can be adjusted in a similar way that flu vaccines are changed throughout the year to combat new strains.

"I am very proud to be Health Minister in a country where we have this ingenuity on our shores," she said.

The vaccine can only be used once a pandemic is officially declared by the World Health Organisation (WHO) but can be manufactured within weeks once a new strain is identified.

China is reporting an outbreak in a southern province among birds.

A man who cleans poultry markets in Hong Kong has the flu but Hong Kong says it is not H5N1.

Report by Canadian economists calls risk of pandemic flu in next five years "not trivial" urges companies to insure against the risk.

"The impact of a pandemic on employee absenteeism and its associated effects on lost revenues and incomes are also likely to be very significant," it concludes. "Firms cannot afford to ignore such risks for competitive, as well as legal and fiduciary reasons."
That's even more the case if their competitors are preparing themselves, the author of the study said.

Novartis withdrew its pre-pandemic vaccine from regulatory consideration in the EU, saying it could not supply required data in the timeframe required.

New Jersey is using the summer to prepare its pandemic flu plan.

The American Journal of Public Health writes about how hard-to-reach populations will be vaccinated for bird flu.

A story in Vietnam about scientists both domestic and foreign working together on bird flu.

CIDRAP has the story about Sanofi's donation to WHO. Includes links to press release, etc.

June 15 Flu Update

2008-06-16T09:12:00.002-04:00

Sanofi donates vaccine to WHO.

Helen Branswell weighs in on the Baxter vaccine.

ProMed runs a guest article on the weak point of containment strategy--rapid universal testing of suspected bird flu cases.

St. Joseph County in Indiana is preparing for the bird flu.

The American Health Legal Association is the latest group with a pan flu guide...

June 14 Flu Update

2008-06-15T09:32:00.003-04:00

Extreme shortage of flu news....

ProMed on existing reports about outbreaks in North Korea.

OIE on outbreaks of bird flu from an animal health perspective.

The Department of Agriculture is being urged to increase bird flu efforts in the Philippines.

Malawi is getting ready for the bird flu.

June 13 Flu Update

2008-06-14T08:37:00.002-04:00

More Indonesian follies. Apparently, their policy of not announcing bird flu deaths extends to the next of kin of the deceased. A man is scouring the papers to find news of his wife, who died of bird flu 10 days ago.

CIDRAP on this report. Note WHO coddling Indonesia....

Fear is gripping Hong Kong.

A lab in Arkansas is screening for the bird flu.

ProMed on the wild bird surveillance recently in Canada.

June 12 Flu Update

2008-06-13T09:07:00.003-04:00

Today's big news--all over the place--about a vaccine from Baxter that shows promise. CIDRAP reports.

In an accompanying perspective article in NEJM, Peter F. Wright, MD, cites the introduction of a cell-culture–derived flu vaccine as perhaps the most important innovation represented by the Baxter report. Conventional egg-based technology requires decisions in February concerning the next season's vaccine strains, he notes. But with cell-culture vaccines, "this schedule could be altered to permit incorporation of late-emerging threats."
A graphic accompanying Wright's commentary indicates that cell-culture technology would permit mass production of a vaccine within 12 weeks from the time a pandemic flu virus is identified, versus 22 weeks for egg-based technology.

CIDRAP reports. More H5N1 found in Hong Kong, where ALL market poultry were culled.

Reports now say that poultry traders may have ignored warning signs about H5N1.

Indonesia has now told WHO that it will announce bird flu deaths as they occur.

Arkansas professor reflects on a pandemic in light of their state's recent brush with non-H5N1 bird flu.

Effect Measure has an excellent story on Indonesia and its reporting issue. Crofsblog is a similar blog to this one, with more commentary. He noted that Indonesia stopped giving OIE reports (outbreaks on avian outbreaks) quite a while ago. Revere comments on the Crofs post. All relevant links are in this post--make sure you read the comments, too.

Chambersburg PA has a public discussion on pandemic flu.

The pandemic conversation also continued in Arkansas.

Surveillance shows no bird flu in Canadian wild birds.

Here's a UNICEF bird flu resource page....

Finally, the EU released an expert opinion on bird flu, noted here via ProMed. Excellent state of the virus type stuff, medium level of science content.

No Post Today....

2008-06-12T06:50:00.000-04:00

Chicken out front should have told you.....

June 10 Flu Update

2008-06-11T08:54:00.002-04:00

ProMed reports that the Hong Kong outbreak was probably caused by smuggled birds.

The SAARC meeting ends in Asia, with agreements to share information rapidly, etc.

CIDRAP reports a study on why tracing disease in airline patients is still tough. For example:

"Let's say we have someone who came into the United States from Paris on Air France, was in the U.S. for a few weeks and then returned to France, and is discovered to have been infectious on both inbound and outbound flights," Marienau said in an interview. "We would want to notify US citizens that were on that outbound flight, but we have to rely on French authorities contacting Air France and initiating the investigation."

The Arkansas flu scare appears to be over.

A province in South Korea is also cleared from the bird flu list.

Public health preparedness is discussed in Brunei.

Scientist who helped develop antivirals says that using them as a preventive measure is a wrong move.

“Widespread prophylaxis to control a pandemic before any vaccine is available, is totally wrong,” Laver continued. “It would be a wicked waste of a valuable resource! Australia had a policy (long since abandoned) to provide essential workers with Tamiflu prophylaxis for six weeks at the start of the pandemic.”

But “what happens then?” Laver mussed. “Apart from the difficulty in identifying the essential workers, and keeping the Tamiflu stockpile safe from desperate people who would do anything to get the drug, at the end of six weeks all those people who had been taking Tamiflu for prophylaxis would be left without protection. And the stockpile would have vanished.”

June 10th Flu Update

2008-06-10T09:22:00.003-04:00

We ran a recent story about concern over disease outbreak in North Korea. Not surprisingly, North Korea has denied it.

There's a meeting of nations going on (SAARC) and they are urging Bangladesh to fight flu harder and communicate more.

More from the meeting....India offers to share its expertise with the region.

CIDRAP on the Hong Kong outbreak.

"If another case of avian influenza is found in other retail market in Hong Kong, the government will call all chickens in the retail level," Chow said.

Hospitals in Vermont held a pandemic exercise.

Representative from Macau meets with WHO official, discussed pandemic.

According to this, airplane cabins have strong air quality systems and are safer than most crowded public places.

June 8 Flu Update

2008-06-09T09:28:00.002-04:00

More on the Hong Kong outbreak, which is Big News, and plummeting poultry sales.

Bangladesh is "gearing up" its bird flu prevention program.

AMA writes about the recent study on antivirals, and how they can be used to slow a pandemic.

Thailand is now flu free, says it wants to export poultry again.

June 7 Flu Update

2008-06-08T10:07:00.003-04:00

About the only news today is the Hong Kong outbreak. It's all over the place.

Other than a lot of culling and wailing, here's an article that says Hong Kong has banned "mainland" poultry from China.

ProMed also has this. Note mod comment that lists Hong Kong protective measures that seemed to have worked for a long time. HK was the site of the very first H5N1 outbreak 11 years ago.

June 6 Flu Update

2008-06-07T10:17:00.002-04:00

You will not be surprised to learn that Indonesia's announcement that it will not announce bird flu deaths regularly has drawn "ire."

ProMed has this story. Note the mod comment that shows that there is confusion about what Indonesia says, too.

Hong Kong has found bird flu in a poultry market.

Hawaii is beginning a program to test travelers with flu-like symptoms as they enter the country.

The Tyson Outbreak is raising bird flu awareness in Arkansas.

In India, compensation to farmers is being delayed--by bureaucracy, it appears.

Britain says bird flu not a risk to the food supply.

Canada is upgrading is surveillance for bird flu.

Lakeland, WI held a bird flu table top exercise.

The Philippines seize poultry shipments from Holland.

Uganda says its bird flu capacity is improving.

June 5 Flu Update

2008-06-06T08:52:00.002-04:00

CIDRAP on Indonesia's announcement that it will no longer make prompt notification of bird flu cases.

Sharon Sanders, editor-in-chief of FluTrackers, a well-known Web message board that focuses on avian flu developments, told CIDRAP News that Indonesia's decision to delay H5N1 notifications will obscure what is happening there, which negatively affects the world's ability to prepare for a pandemic.

She said Indonesia's news blackout would likely have the opposite effect from what the government apparently intends. "Now, there will be intense speculation and generation of rumors surrounding suspicious deaths that have similar symptoms to H5N1 infections," Sanders said. "False rumors of an H5N1 outbreak have the potential to be even more economically devastating than a government-confirmed outbreak."

Effect Measure also blogs this news....

The Health Minister is a nutcase to begin with yet her colleagues in the Indonesian government are letting take the wheel of the bird flu bus. Who is going to pay any attention to what the driver says over the loudspeaker system when the bus has already been driven into the ditch?

A farmer in the UK has been recognized for quick action that might have kept bird flu from spreading in that country.

Things seem under control in South Korea, but the poultry industry has continued to be hit.

Vietnam notes no new cases in the past 100 days.

Surveillance in North America shows no H5N1 here.

I'm surprised this isn't happening more...a pandemic committee in Missouri may be disbanded.

A community in Wyoming is joining a statewide pandemic group.

June 4 Flu Update

2008-06-05T08:59:00.002-04:00

Sometimes you just cannot believe what you read. It appears that Indonesia has decided not to publicize bird flu deaths. See below.

A 15-year-old girl died of bird flu last month, becoming Indonesia's 109th victim, but the government decided to keep the news quiet. It is part of a new policy aimed at improving the image of the nation hardest hit by the disease.
``How does it help us to announce these deaths?'' Heath Minister Siti Fadilah Supari said Thursday, after confirming that the girl from southern Jakarta tested positive on May 13 and died one day later. ``We want to focus now on positive steps and achievements made by the government in fighting bird flu.''

The media picks up the CDC drug and mask requirements.

Britain confirms H7 in latest outbreak. This news is all over the web, but mostly repetitive.

CIDRAP on outbreaks of H7 in UK and US.

Frank Jones, associate director for extension at the Center for Excellence for Poultry Science at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville, said 10 to 12 low-pathogenic avian flu infections occur in the state each year, the Arkansas Democrat Gazette reported today. He said migratory geese could have brought the low-pathogenic strain to northwestern Arkansas, where it could have spread to the breeder hens.

"Typically these things happen in spring and fall when we get waterfowl migration. There's been a lot of waterfowl that have come through," Jones told the newspaper.

Tyson is having export problems due to bird flu.

Interesting story on how mobile phones could be used to track human movement in a community.

A new study, published by the team in the journal Nature, has monitored the movements of 100,000 people by their mobile-phone signals, and perhaps unsurprisingly shows that most people are creatures of habit, tending to make regular migrations to the same few locations, but with occasional long hops.
Mapping large-scale human movements is important for urban planning, traffic forecasting and disease monitoring, but previous attempts to model these patterns, such as by tracking bank notes, have not provided an accurate picture of individuals' movement.

Hawaii is going to do "voluntary" checkpoints for flu.

June 3 Flu Update

2008-06-04T11:40:00.002-04:00

There's a mystery epidemic in North Korea....bears watching.

Hong Kong Scientists have developed a drug cocktail that has had success in mice in fighting bird flu. (The anti-inflammatory is interesting).

...the team said it used a combination of the antiviral drug zanamivir and the non- steroid anti-flammatory agents celecoxib and mesalazine.

If there's a pandemic, CDC recommends people wear masks in crowds....also defines the appropriate conditions for antiviral usage.

Health and Human Services is putting money behind local preparedness grants.

Maryland will hold a statewide pandemic conference.

Another vaccine shows good early results (from Medicago)

Low-path bird flu found in Tyson Chickens in Arkansas. Not huge news, except for the impact. Falling stock price, etc.

Similarly, southern England had a low path outbreak, too.

June 2 Flu Update

2008-06-03T09:06:00.002-04:00

Study shows that H5N1 can swap genetic material with existing flu viruses relatively easily.

An experiment mating H5N1 avian flu viruses and a strain of human flu in a laboratory produced a surprising number of hybrid viruses that were biologically fit, a new study reveals.
And while none of the offspring viruses was as virulent as the original H5N1, about one in five were lethal to mice at low doses, showing they retained at least a portion of the power of their dangerous parent.

Interesting story on how it takes time to recover from a cull when you are raising laying hens.

Uganda says it is intensifying the bird flu fight.

CIDRAP on USDA releasing 150 sequences.

Fujifilm (yes, that's right) is developing an alternative to Tamiflu.

Government oversight group calls for more transparency on pandemic flu.

The USDA has awarded $5m in bird flu grants.

June 1 Flu Update

2008-06-02T09:27:00.002-04:00

The USDA released sequencing of avian flu genomes.

IBM has developed database software which is helping the bird flu fight in the middle east.

AMA newsletter does article on ventilator rationing study which came out a while ago.

Critic reviews the US government's pandemic plan.

May 31 Flu Update

2008-06-01T12:11:00.002-04:00

WHO says it is making progress on intellectual property issues that have hamstrung international bird flu efforts.

A bill in New York on compulsary vaccinations is causing controversy. (It does bring up some issues. In a pandemic, mandatory vaccinations would be a big social/political problem unless panic had set in, in which case people would be demanding them).

A foundation has been founded in Indonesia to help educate the public about bird flu.

We're gone, no post today

2008-05-31T08:38:00.001-04:00

May 29 Flu Update

2008-05-30T08:42:00.002-04:00

CIDRAP reports on a study on a school closure in North Carolina. It had minimal effect on families...but they still went to large gatherings, so the overall point of closing the schools is not clear.

County in West Virginia hears bird flu briefing.

ProMed on the WHO confirmation in Bangladesh.

Bird flu exercise held in Qatar.

May 28 Flu Update

2008-05-29T08:49:00.002-04:00

The WHO has confirmed the case in Bangladesh.

Bhutan holds flu awareness meeting (hint: there's ART)

There is a threat of bird flu, but the stupid swans of Dorset continue to breed.

The Philippines had banned poultry imports from Saskatchewan.

CIDRAP on the evolution of human-like H7 viruses.

Revere blogs on this study as well. As always, this is the perfect piece for understanding this report. One thing is that the whole flu world is not H5N1. The other is below--this little RNA clump remains a mystery to us, a humbling moment in our know-it-all world.

What I get from this study is that we are still some way from understanding the underlying biology of transmissibility and its relation to receptor configurations and related matters. At this point we cannot simply look at the virus's genetic sequence to see what is going to happen. We don't yet understand the connection between the sequence and the biology. Maybe some day we will, but today isn't that day.

May 27 Flu Update

2008-05-28T09:42:00.002-04:00

CIDRAP reports....Indonesia claims that 112 countries support its virus sharing stance.

Scientists at Los Alamos have developed a mathematical model to study how H5N1 evolves, hopefully providing real time tracking of the progress to human transmissibility.

“What we wanted to create was a mathematically rigorous way to account for changes in transmissibility,” said Bettencourt. “We now have a tool that will tell us in the very short term what is happening based on anomaly detection. What this method won’t tell you is what’s going to happen five years from now.”

EU research helps develop more knowledge on how the flu virus hijacks cells.

Nepal has banned bird sacrifices at Hindi temples, according to this report.

Helen Branswell has the story on H7 viruses coming closer to adapting for humans. More of a warning...the virus is constantly evolving. (Also, this virus is more common here in North America.

China grants patent to yield enhancing technology for vaccines.

Has Australia excluded general practice physicians from its pandemic planning.

Producing flu vaccine is seen as big economic opportunity.

No blog today, maybe tomorrow

2008-05-27T07:59:00.001-04:00

May 25 Flu Update

2008-05-26T09:47:00.002-04:00

UNICEF is educating the media in Africa about how to write about bird flu.

Vietnam says some poultry producers are keeping bird flu at bay. (I have no idea what the cooling system has to do with anything).

many big chicken farms in Mekong Delta provinces are still safe from the scourge due to their self-contained chicken raising process and the automatic system of cooling.

Interesting article on poultry news in Asia. Note deep in the article that the live poultry trade will be banned in Jakarta...in 2010.

ProMed has the story from Bangladesh.

The new information is that the infection was contracted in January 2008, and independent confirmation of the local diagnosis was not available until late May 2008. The affected child has since recovered, but the nature of his exposure remains unexplained.

May 24 Flu Update

2008-05-25T13:02:00.002-04:00

Bangladeshi toddler is termed "mystery." How did he get bird flu?

Champaign IL is told that the bird flu is a matter of time.

May 23 Flu Update

2008-05-24T10:53:00.002-04:00

The story of the Bangladeshi toddler is all over the news, but we won't repeat them here.

CIDRAP reports on links between bird flu in South Korea and Japan, and on suspicious bird deaths in Sumatra.

ProMed has the same stories...

Here's a report on the impact of the sick toddler on the poultry industry in Bangladesh.

Revere notes that it is HIGHLY unlikely that this is the first human case in Bangladesh.

South Korea is upgrading the bird flu fight.

Azerbaijan dutifully reports no bird flu in the nation.

Will farmers be able to buy avian flu insurance soon?

May 22 Flu Update

2008-05-23T08:55:00.002-04:00

A toddler in Bangladesh has bird flu, the country's first case. He is said to have recovered, and lived near no poultry, but in the slums.

CIDRAP on the Bangladesh case.

Albany GA had a bird flu seminar.

May 21 Flu Update

2008-05-22T11:19:00.002-04:00

Indian officials optimistically believe they are "mopping up" bird flu in Darjeeling.

Here (search for "flu") we get the encouraging news that bird flu has allowed Israeli and Palestinian officials to cooperate.

Indonesia is now requiring that people get permission before they take their animals to travel.

A Minnesota Regional Medical Office has held a bird flu summit.

South Koreans are urged to fight flu by washing their hands.

In Japan, firefighters are doing pandemic drills.

Flu Primer for Shelbyville, TN

PETA blames filthy farms for bird flu.

Alumni magazine looks at graduate who is working on bird flu. Look for the name Eric Blum.

May 20 Flu Update

2008-05-21T09:25:00.002-04:00

Good thing there is no fish flu....South Koreans are turning to seafood in the bird flu scare

Good flu primer for Tennessee audience.

Continuing flu education is urged in Kenya.

WHO DG Dr. Chan ranks bird flu right up there with climate change and the food shortage.

Article urges Malaysian readers not to be desensitized to bird flu

Bird flu planning is also underway in the Philippines.

May 19 Flu Update

2008-05-20T09:46:00.003-04:00

More on drug resistance in the flu. Excellent story, and really kind of chilling. This virus is very agile.

Birds in Siberia have bird flu antibodies.

State officials in Colorado are making plans for business continuity in a pandemic.

Experts welcome Indonesia's latest pledge to share data--CIDRAP reports.

CIDRAP also has the news of the prepandemic vaccine in Europe.

Expert says natural viruses like flu are more dangerous than bioterror.

More on business impact of agri-disease in South Korea.

May 18 Flu Update

2008-05-19T09:06:00.002-04:00

For the second time, South Korea has mobilized troops to help in the culling of poultry.

More on ongoing culling in South Korea.

Chicken restaurants are suffering serious problems from bird flu scare in South Korea.

Quang Nam in Vietnam says it is bird flu free.

Helen Branswell on EU approval of H5N1 pre-pandemic vaccine--Prepandrix!

Usual high quality post from Revere on the mantra that all human cases have bird exposure....they don't, and we may be missing H2H because we are so quick to explain away infections. Note this...

This case is mysterious in other ways, too. It was originally reported that the teenage girl's 15 year old brother was also a bird flu victim, but the story now goes that the brother died of typhoid fever 10 days before his sister. Had it been bird flu this would have been looked on as a likely person to person transmission. It seems a bit convenient -- but still possible, I suppose -- that the brother died of another fatal infectious disease within exactly one incubation period of his sister. Since it sounds like the brother died before the diagnosis of bird flu was suspected and the diagnosis is based on an unnamed blood test rather than PCR you have to wonder. Of even more interest is the report that a family member of the two, a 24 year old, is being treated at another hospital with bird flu like symptoms.

Don't know we have heard much from Nepal, but this report says its neighboring states are nervous.

May 17 Flu Update

2008-05-18T12:27:00.002-04:00

Now India is putting conditions on how it will share flu viruses.

The Netherlands and France are about to get permission to vaccinate poultry flocks, and the EU is approving it.

Human volunteers in Vietnam have gotten their second dose of flu vaccine.

If you travel away from the United Arab Emirates, don't try to bring eggs back.

May 16 Flu Update

2008-05-17T12:27:00.002-04:00

More on the new outbreaks in India. Commence Culling.

South Korea claims that the strain of bird flu it had has never caused a human infection.

CIDRAP on the lack of a worldwide vaccine stockpile, one year after WHO called for it.

This report says the US is going to study the blood of flu victims in Vietnam.

People in Nepal are urged to be alert about bird flu.

Political pressure in Pakistan on the slow progress of Ag programs, including bird flu....

and calls in India for the resignation of the ag minister.

Pakistani poultry producers also want subsidy for bird vaccine they have to import.

BBC on the revelation that more than one anti-viral is needed in any national stockpile. Seems like I saw this on the blogosphere some time ago....

Hey, and GSK thinks its prudent to stockpile the drug it makes.

Dr. Osterholm delivers a speech in Minnesota with a consistent message--imagine the chaos during a pandemic.

The Indonesian financial sector will have an emergency drill.

May 15 Flu Update

2008-05-16T09:55:00.002-04:00

More bird flu in South Korea.

An additional confirmation of bird flu in India as well.

ProMed on South Korea and India. Note reference to a "slow" response in India.

There's going to be an online database with influenza virus information on it. Indonesia says it will participate.

"It think it's wonderful," said Peter Palese, who studies influenza viruses at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York, adding that it will help researchers make sure the virus isn't mutating to a form that spreads more easily between people, with the potential to kill millions worldwide.
"It goes in the direction of creating a global health conscience."
The free, online site launched Thursday, 18 months after strategic adviser Peter Bogner and 77 influential scientists and health experts wrote a letter to Nature magazine calling for information about bird flu to be shared more quickly and openly, and creating the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data, or GISAID.

Nature's report on Tamiflu resistance is all over the place. Here, an Australian paper notes that a lot of eggs were put in the Tamiflu basket. Note that Relenza appears to perform well...

And this article explains why, in actual scientific terms.

More on the reaction in Australia...given the Tamiflu-reliant flu strategies in nearly every country, any country could really have written this.

CIDRAP has this as well. Note emphasis on anti-viral mix.

Good Revere post on the issue of scientific ethics and the sharing of flu viruses. He has empathy for the feeling that something belongs to you when you made it workable through your own hard work, and that might work for most research, but not for an emerging issue like the flu where time is of the essence.

A Filipino city changes its bird flu program.

Sorry Folks......

2008-05-15T08:41:00.002-04:00

Park's Closed! Moose out front should have told you.

Back online tomorrow.

May 13 Flu Update

2008-05-14T09:21:00.002-04:00

CIDRAP on a critical care panel discussing how to handle scarce medical resources during a surge.

More on endemic bird flu in South Korea.

Farmers are being "sensitized" to bird flu in Sierra Leone.

This report says Yemen is stopping Saudi poultry imports, but I am not aware of any recent outbreaks there. Perhaps this is a "ghost" story.

May 12 Flu Update

2008-05-13T09:05:00.002-04:00

After a second outbreak of bird flu in Seoul, the authorities have killed the entire poultry population in the city. All of them.

CIDRAP on South Korea as well. Note spread to farms in the Seoul metro area.

In fact, bird flu may be endemic in South Korea.

North Korea is casting a wary eye on South Korea.

A new locality in Vietnam has found bird flu.

Australia, on the other hand, still says its bird flu risk is low.

Indonesia's state pharma firm is saying it will have human flu vaccine...by 2011.

OSHA is looking for insight on the stockpiling of respirators in the event of a pandemic.

May 11 Flu Update

2008-05-12T09:57:00.002-04:00

Vietnam reports good results from its human bird flu vaccine.

Thailand has apparently prevented the smuggling of bird flu vaccine from China.

Australia held a second pandemic influenza conference.

A common theme. Bird flu containment efforts are hampered by poor compensation for farmers.